A crucial Game 3 in the Western Conference Finals tips off at 8:30 p.m. EST on Saturday night as the Minnesota Timberwolves aim to keep their season alive against the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Minnesota dropped the first two games of this series in Oklahoma City, and it’s looking to avoid the dreaded 3-0 deficit as a home underdog in Game 3. The Wolves have struggled on offense in this series, failing to crack 90 points in Game 1.
Meanwhile, OKC appears to have found its groove since the start of Game 7 against Denver, winning three games in a row by double digits. As a result, the Thunder are massive favorites to win the NBA Finals, and they’d likely move to even larger favorites if they take a 3-0 lead in the Western Conference Finals.
On Saturday, I’m eyeing a pair of bets, including a player prop for Anthony Edwards – who had a strong showing in Game 2.
Here’s a full breakdown of the bets for Game 3!
Find Peter Dewey’s NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Anthony Edwards OVER 27.5 Points (-115) – 0.5 unit
Anthony Edwards is averaging 26.3 points on 20.8 shots per game in the playoffs, and he was much more aggressive in Game 2, scoring 32 points on 26 shots.
While Edwards made just one of his nine shots from beyond the arc in the game, he still was involved enough to clear this line against a tough OKC defense.
Plus, Julius Randle (six points in Game 2) was slowed down with the Thunder fronting him to avoid letting him get deep on post ups. If Randle doesn’t get going, Minnesota is in serious trouble when it comes to getting offense in this series.
Edwards averages over 27 points per game in the playoffs in his career, and if he pushes 20 shots again – which I’d expect he would in a must-win game – he’s a solid bet to clear this prop.
Oklahoma City Thunder -2.5 (-112) vs. Minnesota Timberwolves – 0.5 unit
The Thunder have simply outclassed the Timberwolves in this series, especially on the defensive end of the floor.
OKC has given up just 191 points through two games, forcing 33 turnovers in the process. If the Wolves are going to allow the Thunder a chance to get out and run off of steals and other turnovers, they’re going to struggle against this team.
Plus, OKC’s supporting cast has been better than it was in the Denver series, giving Shai Gilgeous-Alexander some much-needed support on the offensive end. Jalen Williams is averaging 22.5 points per game in the series and Chet Holmgren had a huge 22-point game in Game 2.
Minnesota has been a solid defensive team all season – and in the playoffs – but the Wolves’ lack of production from Naz Reid, Donte DiVincenzo and others is extremely concerning against the league’s No. 1 defense.
Plus, OKC held Julius Randle to just six points in Game 2, an ominous sign for this Minnesota offense going forward.
Originally I thought the Wolves would hang around in this series, but the Thunder defense is proving to be far and away the best unit left in the playoffs. OKC is 23-17-2 against the spread as a road favorite this season and 2-0 ATS in this series.
It can cover this short spread on Saturday night.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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