The Denver Nuggets-Oklahoma City Thunder matchup in the second round of the NBA playoffs has been nothing short of fantastic.
While the Thunder won in a blowout in Game 2, the other four games in this matchup have been extremely close, with no team winning by double digits in those contests. OKC pulled off a huge comeback win in Game 5 on Tuesday night, winning by seven to take a 3-2 series lead.
It was the second straight game where the Thunder erased a fourth-quarter deficit, and they are just one win away from the Western Conference Finals.
However, Denver has not been an easy out all postseason, forcing seven games (and winning) in the first round against the Los Angeles Clippers. Now, the Nuggets are underdogs at home in Game 6 as they attempt to extend this series.
There are a few plays that I’m eyeing for this standalone matchup, including a prop bet for Nuggets superstar Nikola Jokic after he was terrific in Game 5.
Let’s break down each of these picks for what should be an eventful Game 6.
Find Peter Dewey’s NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.
Nikola Jokic OVER 28.5 Points (-110) – 0.5 unit
The Thunder have tried to take away Jokic’s elite passing ability in this series, holding him to just 26 assists in five games.
For reference, Jokic averaged over 10 assists per game in the regular season, yet he does not have a game with more than six assists in this series.
With OKC forcing Jokic to be a scorer, the three-time league MVP has obliged, taking 22 or more shots in four of his five games in this matchup. Not only that, but Jokic has two 40-point games, including a 44-point masterpiece in Game 5.
The Nuggets have been playing a short rotation, and Jokic has suited up for over 42 minutes in four of the five games in this series.
In a must-win game, he is a great bet at this number if his shot count remains in the 20s.
Oklahoma City Thunder-Denver Nuggets UNDER 217.5 (-110) – 0.5 unit
Games 1 and 2 of this series were high-scoring affairs, but these teams have not kept that up as the series has gone on.
Games 3, 4, and 5 all finished with 217 or fewer combined points, including a 179-point game in Game 4 in Denver.
The Nuggets have been playing a very short rotation, so it’s not surprising if fatigue is starting to kick in, especially since they went to seven games in the first round. Meanwhile, OKC was the No. 1 defensive team in the NBA during the regular season, so it should be expected that it can slow down Denver.
While I do lean with the Nuggets to cover in this matchup, I’d rather bet on the total in a matchup that should have a Game 7-like vibe.
Denver needs to win to extend its series, and the Thunder have been playing with their backs against the wall since falling behind 2-1 in Game 3. OKC certainly would love to avoid a Game 7 with Jokic on the other side, but the Nuggets have thrived against the spread as underdogs in the playoffs.
Offense has been at a premium, especially early in games, over the last few matchups in this series. As long as this total remains closer to 220 than 210, I believe the UNDER is the play on Thursday.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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