A trip to the playoffs is one the line for four teams on Friday night, as the NBA’s play-in tournament action wraps up and the playoffs come into focus – starting on Saturday.
Friday’s action features the two No. 8 seeds taking on the two No. 10 seeds after a pair of road wins from Miami and Dallas put them in position to win and get in as the No. 8 seed in their respective conferences.
The first matchup of the night will decide who plays the Cleveland Cavaliers in the first round of the Eastern Conference playoffs, as the Atlanta Hawks – who were blown out by the Orlando Magic on Tuesday – host the Miami Heat.
Miami has earned the No. 8 seed by way of the play-in tournament in each of the last two completed seasons, and it has a chance to do that again on Friday. In fact, oddsmakers have set Miami as a one-point favorite in the latest odds after it put together a dominating showing against the Chicago Bulls on Wednesday.
Can Erik Spoelstra’s group get it done again?
Meanwhile, in the Western Conference, the Dallas Mavericks and Anthony Davis took care of business on Wednesday, defeating the Sacramento Kings to set up a win-or-go-home matchup with the Memphis Grizzlies on Friday.
Memphis is heavily favored in this matchup, but guard Ja Morant suffered an ankle injury in the team’s close loss to the Golden State Warriors If Morant is hobbled at all in this one, it could spell trouble for a Memphis team that tanked down the stretch of the regular season.
To be completely transparent, it’s been a rough play-in tournament to date for my NBA bets. However, a Warriors to make the playoffs ticket from before the season helped soften that blow this week.
I’m aiming to get back on track with these plays for Friday night’s action with two No. 8 seeds on the line.
Find Peter Dewey’s NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Trae Young UNDER 40.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-105)
Hawks star Trae Young put together a big game – before getting tossed – against Orlando, but he has struggled against Miami in his career.
This season, Young fell short of this line in three of the four games that he played against the Heat, averaging 17.0 points, 12.3 assists and 2.0 rebounds per game. For his career, Young is averaging 21.3 points, 9.3 assists and 3.1 rebounds in 23 games against Miami.
So, it’s not normal for him to be hovering around 40.5 points, rebounds and assists against this Erik Spoelstra defense.
The Heat shut down the Bulls in their first play-in tournament game, and they finished the regular season ninth in the league in defensive rating. Even though Miami struggled record wise, the defense has always been a calling card for this group.
Young is going to see all types of coverages in this one, as the Hawks really lack a proven No. 2 option with Jalen Johnson done for the season. I don’t see him putting together a big enough game to clear this line, especially if the Heat can slow the pace like they did on Wednesday against the Bulls.
Dallas Mavericks +6.5 (-108) vs. Memphis Grizzlies
There have only been two games since Anthony Davis returned to the lineup where Dallas didn’t cover this number or win outright – and they were losses to the Los Angeles Clippers and Los Angeles Lakers.
Memphis has not played well recently, ranking 17th in the NBA in net rating after the All-Star break, and the Mavs are entering this game with some momentum after blowing out the Kings – in Sacramento – in the No. 9 vs. No. 10 game.
Morant is likely going to be at less than 100 percent, which puts a lot of pressure on the Grizzlies supporting cast. Unlike Golden State – who Memphis dominated in the painted area and on the glass – Dallas has a ton of size to match up with Zach Edey, Jaren Jackson Jr. and others in the post.
In fact, the Mavericks blocked eight shots in their win over Sacramento and were flying to the ball all night long with Davis, Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively II.
Memphis may end up winning this game (it was 17-15 against the spread when favored at home this season), but I think Dallas can keep this matchup within two possessions. The Mavericks have a lot of playoff experience on their roster, and an argument could be made that a healthy Davis is the best player in this matchup.
This is too many points to lay with a Memphis team that has struggled against playoff-caliber opponents, beating just two teams that are over .500 (Dallas does not fit that description) since early February.
Desmond Bane OVER 2.5 3-Pointers Made (-135)
Grizzlies guard Desmond Bane knocked down five 3-pointers in the loss to Golden State on Tuesday night, remaining as hot as ever from beyond the arc. Bane is shooting 42.1 percent from deep since the start of March, averaging nearly three 3-pointers made per game.
I’m buying him to knock down three shots from deep – something he’s done in six of his last seven games – against Dallas on Friday.
The Grizzlies may be more reliant on Bane with Morant nursing a bad ankle, and the Mavericks haven’t been great defending the 3 this season, ranking 19th in the NBA in opponent 3-point percentage.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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