The Boston Celtics’ dream of repeating as champions is dead, the best player in the world has been eliminated, and the No. 1 seed the East is already on vacation. The second round of the 2025 NBA Playoffs was full of carnage, and no one could have anticipated the last four teams left standing.
The Oklahoma City Thunder and Minnesota Timberwolves are meeting for the Western Conference championship. The Indiana Pacers and New York Knicks square-off for the Eastern Conference crown. The 2025 NBA Finals are going to give us a surprise matchup no matter how this round plays out, and the basketball should continue to be as great as ever.
The playoffs have been a war of attrition thus far. Jayson Tatum’s devastating torn Achilles killed any chance the Celtics had of coming back against New York. The Cavaliers’ dream season went up in smoke when Darius Garland and Evan Mobley sustained their own injuries. Golden State’s season died when Stephen Curry went down with a series-ending hamstring injury in Game 1 against the Wolves. The Thunder caught a big break when Nuggets forward Aaron Gordon sustained a hamstring strain before Game 7 of their second round series.
Health will be the biggest key entering the conference finals, but for now the four remaining teams in the playoffs are all relatively healthy. Let’s rank the NBA’s final four in 2025 by their championship chances.
4. New York Knicks
The Knicks are in the conference finals for the first time in 25 years, back when current head coach Tom Thibodeau was an assistant under Jeff Van Gundy. New York’s first year with Karl-Anthony Towns and Mikal Bridges never felt like it would get this far, but Thibodeau found some real answers to help pull the upset vs. Boston. The Knicks were confident in their defensive switches against the Celtics, with Towns holding up better on the perimeter than he has most of the year in the paint. Mitchell Robinson’s emergence has given New York a new two-big look that crushes on the boards. Miles McBride is growing into a valuable contributor, too, by providing some much needed shot-making. The Knicks just want to keep things close until Jalen Brunson can take over in crunch time, and at this point it would be foolish to think any defense can stop him when the game is on the line. Still, the Knicks offense has only scored 110.7 points per 100 possessions in the playoffs, which would have ranked No. 24 during the regular season. It’s going to be harder to win a rock fight series against a Pacers team that is so good at controlling the tempo, and a thin rotation will be tested by Indy’s dedication to pushing the pace. The Eastern Conference Finals feel like a coin flip to me, and should produce some amazing hoops. I’m giving the slightest edge to Indy, though. If it’s any consolation to Knicks fans, I also put New York last in my second round rankings, and they made me look silly. I wouldn’t be shocked if it happens again.
3. Indiana Pacers
The Pacers have certainly gotten the injury luck on their side during their back-to-back conference finals runs, but nothing about Indiana’s success feels like a fluke. The Pacers ran a 64-win Cavs team off the floor in five games by flexing their high-powered offense and proving how much their defense has leveled up. The Pacers want to run at every opportunity, and Tyrese Haliburton has a special ability to crank up the tempo while avoiding turnovers. Haliburton’s brilliant passing creates a good look for the offense on most possessions, and Indiana suddenly feels like it has shot-makers all over the floor. Andrew Nembhard is proving himself to be a true playoff rise in the backcourt, while Aaron Nesmith is becoming one of the league’s best ‘3-and-D’ style wings before our eyes. The Pascal Siakam trade was a true masterstroke, giving Indiana more size and raising the defensive floor while also providing the team with a crucial secondary creator. The Pacers offense has been humming at 117.3 points per 100 possessions, and it will have a couple easy targets to pick on in Brunson and Towns against the Knicks (granted, both players stepped up defensively vs. Boston). For all the attention Brunson gets for his skill in the clutch, Haliburton is building his own legacy as a crunch-time assassin over the last year. The Pacers are a little deeper and a little more explosive offensively than the Knicks, and that makes them a safer bet than the Knicks.
2. Minnesota Timberwolves
The Wolves caught a huge break by only needing to face Stephen Curry for 13 total minutes in the second round, but don’t let that fool you: Minnesota has been the most consistent and convincing team during this postseason. Anthony Edwards is leveling up as both a decision-maker and a shot-maker, proving he can’t be sped up against aggressive traps and showing that his improved three-point stroke is just as deadly in the playoffs. Edwards doesn’t need to feel the weight of the world on his shoulders, because his teammates are all peaking at the right time. Julius Randle has been sensational in running over smaller and older teams in the first two rounds, Jaden McDaniels is proving to be a reliable two-way forward, and Naz Reid is a weapon off the bench. Add in Rudy Gobert’s typically great rim deterrence, and the Wolves have a huge, physical team with great depth and true playoff alpha leading the way in Edwards. Minnesota has a pathway to victory in a series vs. the Thunder, but it needs to cut down its turnovers and keep OKC out of transition. This will be Minnesota’s toughest test yet, and if they can pass it, the franchise’s first ever trip to the NBA Finals awaits.
1. Oklahoma City Thunder
The Thunder won with defense during the regular season, and it’s again carrying them in the playoffs. OKC’s offense sputtered at times in a seven-game classic against the Nuggets, but the defense was consistently able to force turnovers and make Denver’s life miserable. Surviving against Nikola Jokic has to fill the Thunder with confidence, and Minnesota being a high turnover team plays right into their hands in the conference finals. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander put up huge numbers for the series against Denver, proving his signature brand of creation works in the playoffs. Jalen Williams was hugely disappointing for most of the series, and the Thunder probably won’t be able to survive this round if he doesn’t revert to his near All-NBA level from the regular season. OKC has a solid formula for winning games even when the offense isn’t fully humming, and that’s where Williams’ defense on the perimeter helps out. The Thunder have so many good options to throw at Edwards with Alex Caruso, Lu Dort, and Cason Wallace leading the way, and it will be off the races when they can pressure him (or Mike Conley or Donte DiVincenzo or Randle) into turnovers. OKC can’t shoot the ball any worse from deep than they did against the Nuggets, and they still survived. As the league’s two other 60+ win teams fell in the second round, the Thunder trudge forward as the championship favorite. The road is setting up wonderfully for OKC’s first ever championship, and at this point, anything less will be a disappointment.
