A standalone NBA playoff game calls for some prop bet plays, and I’m eyeing a bunch in Friday night’s Game 6 matchup between the Houston Rockets and Golden State Warriors.
Oddsmakers have set the Warriors as favorites at home in this game, but the Rockets showed some resiliency in Game 5, blowing out Golden State in the first half to force a Game 6. Only 13 teams in NBA history have erased a 3-1 series deficit, but the Rockets’ odds to do so would skyrocket if they win Game 6 before heading home for Game 7.
In the prop market, there is a play that I love for Golden State star Steph Curry, as well as a pick for Amen Thompson, who may be undervalued on the glass.
Here’s a complete breakdown of Friday’s props!
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Steph Curry OVER 5.5 Assists (+120)
The Rockets have held Curry to just 30 points in his last two games, but the star guard has picked up seven or more assists in three of the five games in this series, including a seven-assist showing in less than 24 minutes of action in Game 5.
Curry is averaging 11.2 potential assists per game in this series, and he finished the regular season averaging 6.0 assists per game. Houston is trying to force the ball out Curry’s hands – and rightfully so – in this series.
So, I think he’s undervalued a bit at this number considering he’s cleared it in 60 percent of the games in the first round. At +120, this is worth a bet on Friday.
Amen Thompson OVER 6.5 Rebounds (-154)
In this series, Amen Thompson has six or more rebounds in four of his five games, clearing this prop in three of them.
Overall, he’s averaging 10.6 rebound chances per game, giving him a pretty solid floor to pick up seven or more boards on Friday night.
Thompson is going to play a ton of minutes, especially since he’s been the primary defender on Curry for Houston in this series. Plus, he averaged 8.2 boards per game in the regular season, so this line feels like a bit of a steal on Friday night.
Jalen Green UNDER 15.5 Points (-110)
Earlier today, I shared in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why Jalen Green is a fade candidate on Friday night:
It’s been a rough series for Houston guard Jalen Green, as he’s only had one game where he’s looked like himself, scoring 38 points in Game 2.
Green averaged 21.0 points per game in the regular season, but he’s scored less than 10 points in three games in this series, failing to clear 15.5 points on four occasions.
In fact, outside of his 38-point game in Game 2, Green has just 35 total points in the rest of the series. Not great.
On top of that, Ime Udoka has cut Green’s minutes, playing him less than 28 minutes in each of the last two games. Prior to that, he had played 30 or more minutes in each of the first three games in this matchup.
Overall, Green is shooting just 38.8 percent from the field and 33.3 percent from deep in this series. He’s impossible to trust at this number given how bad he’s looked in the four games that he’s scored 11 or fewer points. I’ll fade him in Game 6.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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Find Peter Dewey’s NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.
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