Steph Curry and the Golden State Warriors picked up a massive comeback win in Game 3 of the first round – without Jimmy Butler – to take a 2-1 series lead on the No. 2-seeded Houston Rockets.
Now, Golden State is favored at home in Game 4 with Butler listed as questionable with a pelvic contusion.
Houston and Golden State have played some intense defensive games, and it seems like oddsmakers are expecting another in Game 4 with the total set at 203 points.
Curry has been magnificent in this series, scoring 31 and 36 points in the two Warriors wins. However, Houston has dominated the series on the glass, and the Warriors’ offense was extremely shaky until Curry took over in Game 3.
Can Houston even the series before it heads to a Game 5?
Let’s break down the odds, player props to bet and my prediction for this Game 4 matchup.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Moneyline
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Rockets Injury Report
Warriors Injury Report
Houston Rockets Best NBA Prop Bet
Houston big man Alperen Sengun has been a monster on the glass in this series, averaging 12.0 rebounds per game and picking up 16 and 11 boards in his last two contests.
During the regular season, the All-Star big man averaged 10.3 rebounds per game, so all bettors need is for him to hit around his season average to clear this prop. And, Sengun has dominated the Warriors and their small-ball lineups in the 2024-25 season.
He’s picked up 10+ boards in six of his eight matchups with Golden State this season. Plus, in the series, Sengun is averaging 16.7 rebound chances per game. He’s a must-bet at this price in Game 4.
Golden State Warriors Best NBA Prop Bet
Curry put Golden State on his back on Saturday night in Game 3, and he’s now scored 31, 20 and 36 points in his three games in this series.
The volume is going to be there for Curry – especially if Butler is out again – regardless of the flow of the game. Steph has at least 15 shot attempts in every game in this series and took 23 in Game 3 with Butler out of the lineup.
Houston’s defense is great, but Curry is an all-time playoff performer and has shown that in this matchup. At home, he’s worth a look at this number in Game 4.
One of my favorite bets of the day is in this matchup, and I shared it in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – for Monday’s action:
The Warriors and Rockets have now matched up eight times in the 2024-25 season (three playoffs matchups, five regular-season games), and they have cleared 203 points just one time.
That game was the first meeting of the season between the teams and it ended up going into overtime.
Since then, we’ve seen a ton of low-scoring affairs, including a 104-93 win by Golden State in Game 3.
If Butler is unable to go, the Warriors’ offense is extremely limited, and Houston has shown all postseason that it can’t exactly score at a high level.
Here’s a few important stats to note in this series:
Unless something drastically changes on the offensive end for both teams, this is going to be a low-scoring game. Golden State was the No. 1 defense in the NBA after the Butler trade this season and Houston was a top-five defensive unit all season.
The UNDER is also a perfect 3-0 in this series.
Pick: UNDER 203 (-110 at DraftKings)
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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Find Peter Dewey’s NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.
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