When players are selected in the first or second round of an MLB draft, the expectations for their future are high. Although some make it to the big leagues within a few years and find a regular role, a significant percentage never reach The Show and others who are slow to develop take a lot more time before they’re major-league ready.
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Every season, I find it exciting when a former top prospect — who most think will not become a productive big leaguer — suddenly realizes his potential and is able to show he was worthy of a first- or second-round selection.
Let’s look at some of those Day 1 picks who are making statements early this season, playing like scouts and analysts originally thought they would when they were drafted. Time will tell if they’re able to sustain their success, but these players are off to promising starts.
1. Kyren Paris, OF, Angels
The Angels selected Paris in the 2019 second round out of Freedom High School (Oakley, Calif.). The first round of that draft produced Bobby Witt Jr., Adley Rutschman, Riley Greene and Corbin Carrol, and Gunnar Henderson was the first pick in Round 2. Despite being a second-rounder, Paris flew under the radar as a prospect for much of his minor-league career. Until now.
Paris, 23, has burst onto the big-league scene this year with five homers, 12 runs scored and eight RBIs in his first 28 bats, along with four stolen bases in as many attempts. He’s showing improved strength and star-level athleticism. Now, let’s see how he does over a larger sample. I’m not promising this is real, but like the Eiffel Tower, he’s certainly gotten our attention.
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2. Tyler Soderstrom, 1B, Athletics
When the A’s took Soderstrom in the 2020 first round out of Turlock (Calif.) High School, a lot of teams called it an “overdraft” because baseball people questioned if he could stay at catcher and didn’t think he’d hit enough to play first base. They were right about him needing to move to first base (although he still catches occasionally), but Soderstrom, 23, silenced critics from an offensive perspective in 2022 when he hit 29 home runs and drove in 105 runs across three minor-league levels.
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Soderstrom made his major-league debut in 2023 and hit just .160, allowing the doubters to say, “I told you so.” I asked A’s executives Billy Beane and David Forst about him after that season and their strong endorsements helped convince me he’d become a middle-of-the-order impact bat. However, last July they drafted first baseman Nick Kurtz, another slugger with big-time power, at No. 4, adding to the noise that the A’s weren’t sold on Soderstrom’s future as their long-term first baseman.
Well, I think Soderstrom may have finally silenced the critics once and for all by starting this season on fire. He’s slashed .354/.426/.771 (1.197 OPS) with six home runs and 10 RBIs. Just watching his approach and consistency makes me a believer, but the underlying metrics also are promising. He ranks in the top percentile in batting run value, the 89th percentile in barrel rate and the 77th percentile in bat speed. He’s arrived.
Meanwhile, Kurtz has six homers in 48 at-bats in Triple A. So now the big question for the A’s is, how can they fit both Soderstrom and Kurtz in a lineup that already has Brent Rooker signed long-term as the DH?
3. Casey Mize, RHP, Tigers
Mize was the first player taken in the 2018 draft with most scouts believing the Auburn product would get right to the big leagues and anchor the Detroit Tigers’ rotation for years to come. He posted a 3.95 ERA that year over five minor-league starts. In 2019, his first full year in the minors, he went 8-3 with a 2.55 ERA over 21 starts, sparking the belief he’d make it to the big leagues in 2020 — which he did. However, his major-league debut was disappointing as he posted a 6.99 ERA over seven starts. In 2021, he went 7-9 with a 3.71 ERA, and at that point evaluators were calling him a back-of-the-rotation starter who would never live up to his 1-1 status. Those rumblings intensified after he underwent Tommy John surgery, which wiped out the final four and a half months of 2022 and all of his 2023 season.
He returned to the majors last year, posting a 5.01 ERA over 20 starts and two relief appearances. Then this spring training, Mize, 27, started to show that No. 1 pick stuff again. His fastball velocity spiked, and in four spring starts and two relief appearances, he struck out 25 in 19 innings; scouts said it was the best stuff they’d seen from him, including his time at Auburn.
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Mize’s fastball is now consistently in the 95-mph range and he’s owning the top of the zone. Hitters are batting just .222 against his slurve and they’ve yet to get hit off his split-finger (0-for-10). His control and command have been differentiators. His composure is back. He’s 2-0 with a 0.77 ERA in two starts. He has the potential to be a game-changer for the Tigers, increasing their chances of winning the AL Central if he can keep this up.
4. Spencer Torkelson, 1B, Tigers
Torkelson, like Mize, was also a No. 1 pick (2020). The Arizona State product hit 54 home runs over three college seasons. He made his pro debut in 2021, where across three levels he hit 30 home runs with 91 RBIs. He made it to the majors in 2022 but batted just .203 with eight home runs. In 2023, his power arrived in the big leagues when he hit 31 home runs, but he batted just .233. Then last year he showed little-to-no improvement, hitting .219 with 10 homers over 92 games in the majors.
Torkelson’s 2024 performance was so bad that in the offseason, Tigers president of baseball operations Scott Harris announced Colt Keith would be moved to first base and Torkelson would have to make the team either as a DH or a backup. Talk about a wake-up call. He wasn’t even given another opportunity to win the job in spring training. However, Torkleson, 25, changed his approach at the plate, fixed his mechanics on his back side and became more forward facing. He now just drops the barrel head — and damage follows.
He’s back to playing mostly first base, and his strong start includes a .311/.415/.622 slash line (200 OPS+) with three homers and five doubles. I’m a believer. I’ll be surprised if he doesn’t hit 30 homers and drive in 100 runs this season while setting career highs in average and on-base percentage.
5. Max Meyer, RHP, Marlins
Meyer was the third player drafted in 2020. The following year, in his first minor-league season, the Minnesota product walked 42 in 111 innings. Then in 2022, he posted a 3.69 ERA over 13 starts. He made his major-league debut that season but soon after underwent Tommy John surgery, which forced him to miss all of 2023. He returned to the mound last year and posted a 4.34 ERA over 15 starts in Triple A, allowing 3.7 walks per nine innings and 9.62 hits per nine before being promoted to the majors. He made 11 starts for Miami, logging a 5.68 ERA and 1.421 WHIP.
However, this year has been a much different story and Meyer has made a huge early statement. In spring training, he walked only two in 14 innings. That improved control has continued in his first three regular-season starts as he’s posted a 2.00 ERA with 19 strikeouts and five walks over 18 innings. At 26, he’s healthy, in his prime and positioned to live up to his lofty draft status.
6. Nick Lodolo, LHP, Reds
In the offseason, I asked Reds president of baseball operations Nick Krall and general manager Brad Meador for their top breakout candidate of 2025 and they both quickly responded with Lodolo. He’s rewarded their confidence so far with a 0.96 ERA in three starts, allowing only one walk over 18 2/3 innings with elite control and command.
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The big lefty went 9-6 last year for the Reds with a 4.76 ERA over 21 starts. He struck out 122 strikeouts in 115 1/3 innings. Lodolo, 27, throws both a two- and four-seamer along with one of the best changeups in the league (.042 batting average against) and a solid curveball (.182 BAA). However, it’s his ability to live on the black and win at both the top and bottom of the strike zone that’s special.
The Pirates drafted Lodolo with the 41st pick in 2016 out of high school, but he didn’t sign. The Reds drafted him at No. 7 in 2019 out of TCU. It’s taken him six years to reach this point, a little bit longer than they would have hoped, but better late than never.
7. Brice Turang, 2B/SS, Brewers
Turang was the Brewers’ first-round pick out of Santiago High School (Corona, Calif.) in 2018, the same draft that produced Logan Gilbert, Alec Bohm, Jonathan India and Shane McClanahan. He spent five years in the minors before finally reaching the majors in 2023, when he hit .218 with a .285 on-base percentage and only six homers, but he did steal 26 bases and play elite defense at second base. Last year, his first full season in the big leagues, he improved his batting average (.254) and OPB (.316) while stealing 50 bases. He won his first Gold Glove Award and had a 4.7-WAR season, but now he’s starting to look like the all-around good player (as opposed to just a speed-and-glove guy) that the Brewers hoped he’d become when they drafted him.
Turang has batted .296/.328/.481 in 58 plate appearances. He’s hit three home runs, and it looks like his power could be ready to arrive. He’ll play all season at 25, the beginning of the prime years for most players. I’m excited to see if he can keep it up offensively and take a significant step forward this season.
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(Top image: Kyren Paris: Ronald Martinez / Getty Images; Casey Mize: Elsa / Getty Images)
