Unlike last year’s NBA Draft, there isn’t a debate over which prospect is expected to be the No. 1 overall pick next month. Since Cooper Flagg put himself on the map before he got to Duke, he was always assumed to be a future top selection. Soon, the time will be here, and Flagg is certain to be called on first.
Similar to the Victor Wembanyama draft two years ago, the 2025 NBA Draft has been dubbed as the Cooper Flagg sweepstakes. There seemed to be more tanking than usual this year.
The Utah Jazz, Washington Wizards, and the Charlotte Hornets share the highest odds of winning the lottery at 14 percent. The New Orleans Pelicans are second, with a 12.5 percent chance of winning, while the Philadelphia 76ers have a 10.5 percent shot.
Many assume the Jazz, Wizards, or Hornets will take on Flagg, but that’s not a guarantee. One lucky team might just win it without having the highest odds.
Could that team be the Sixers? One analysis suggests that luck has been on Philly’s side in this kind of scenario, contrary to popular belief.
Using three different metrics to identify the “luckiest” teams in the lottery, CBS Sports’ Sam Quinn found that the Sixers were “far and away” the luckiest in lottery history.
“In the 40 lotteries the NBA has held so far, the 76ers have gained a preposterous 24 net draft slots thanks to their luck. Only one other team (the Charlotte Hornets at +13) has gained even half as many,” Quinn wrote this week.
“If you’re just looking at the number of times they’ve moved up compared to when they’ve moved down, they win there as well. The 76ers have moved up eight times in their lottery history. They’ve moved down just once. … The only team with a better average lottery performance than the 76ers is the Lakers, but they’re not in the mix this year. Among lottery teams this year, nobody touches Philadelphia’s average lottery performance, which is a 1.26-slot jump per lottery.”
Since 2019, four teams with the highest odds of landing the top pick got what they wanted. Recently, there have been two examples that keep hope for Philly alive. The New Orleans Pelicans had a six percent chance in 2019, and they netted the pick for Duke’s Zion Williamson. Last year, the Atlanta Hawks had a three percent chance, and they had the chance to pick between Zaccharie Risacher and Alex Sarr.
While there is a disaster scenario potentially in play for the Sixers next week, as falling beyond six would allow the Oklahoma City Thunder to take the pick, history says the Sixers aren’t that unlucky. While the 2024-2025 NBA season has gone terribly wrong for Philadelphia, at least a high lottery pick could be a solid consolation prize.
And if the Sixers somehow win the lottery to land Cooper Flagg, it could end up being a franchise-changing moment after a surprisingly disappointing year.
More 76ers on SI
You can contact Justin Grasso via e-mail: JustinGrasso32@gmail.com
