Who is the greatest player in Toronto Blue Jays history? There isn’t an obvious answer like there is for the Kansas City Royals (George Brett) or San Diego Padres (Tony Gwynn), but that will change soon. Slugging first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. signed a 14-year, $500 million extension that will keep him in Toronto through 2039.
Guerrero came up through the Blue Jays system and debuted in 2019, so he will have played 21 years for the club by the time his new deal expires. By then, he ought to possess nearly every franchise record a hitter can have. Now the organization has to determine how to build a winning ballclub around him. They’ve got plenty of work to do on that front as they seek to build on a last place finish in the AL East and a 74-88 record.
Payroll
Toronto has a luxury tax payroll of $269.3 million this season according to Cot’s Contracts, which is the sixth-highest figure in MLB. That represents an increase of about $35 million over last season, and they’ll exceed the luxury tax threshold as a first-time payor by around $28 million.
Their biggest free agent signings this winter include outfielder Anthony Santander on a five-year, $92.5 million contract, relievers Jeff Hoffman and Yimi García for a combined $18.5 million per year, and future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer for one year and $15.5 million. Overhauling an ineffective bullpen was an important objective for the front office, but they also came up short for several big-name free agents including Juan Soto and Roki Sasaki. They were perceived as the runner-up for Shohei Ohtani the previous offseason.
Building Around Guerrero
By extending Guerrero, the Blue Jays have already signed next offseason’s biggest free agent, but they still have a lot of work to do to round out their lineup. Shortstop Bo Bichette is also on the precipice of free agency, and with an upgrade needed over Ernie Clement and Will Wagner at third base, the team has to replace the left side of the infield.
Bichette could become an extension candidate depending on how his season goes. After two All-Star appearances earlier in his career, his production crashed last year with a .225/.277/.322 batting line. A full rebound could mean a lucrative long-term contract, but a repeat of 2024’s performance could lead to a one-year pillow contract as he seeks to re-establish his value.
Toronto’s main focus next offseason will have to be rebuilding the starting rotation. Scherzer, who’s currently on the injured list, and Chris Bassitt are both impending free agents. That will clear $37.5 million in salary, but leave substantial holes in the pitching staff. José Berríos is locked up on a long-term deal and Kevin Gausman is signed through 2026. Late-bloomer Bowden Francis won’t even be eligible for arbitration for two more years, but the team will need to add two premium starters to begin next year with a strong five-man rotation.
The Blue Jays can continue to upgrade other areas as well, such as center field where the aging George Springer is miscast. They can also use another proven bat in their corner outfield/designated hitter mix, and their bullpen is always a work in progress.
Now that they’ve secured their face of the franchise, they will need to commit to building a winner around him. They haven’t been successful recruiting the top free agents over the last few years, but now that Guerrero is staying put, they’ll hope he becomes a drawing card.
