This article could be two sentences long:
- The Leafs have underperformed in the playoffs under Shanahan’s watch.
- Brendan Shanahan’s contract is expiring.
No tea leaves are required for this one and the direction seems pretty clear. That doesn’t mean that it isn’t worth looking at how the Leafs have reached this point and what was Shanahan’s impact on the Leafs reaching getting here, and the more important question, what comes next?
When Shanahan first arrived with the Leafs it is safe to say they were lost in the woods. He went to work by getting Randy Carlyle and Dave Nonis out, ending the Brian Burke influence on the Maple Leafs. He modernized the front office by bringing in Kyle Dubas’ analytical, evidence-based approach to team building, and seemingly together they built what would become known as the Shanaplan, which now has plenty of warts showing on.
The biggest success under Shanahan was his weaponization of the deep pockets of Maple Leafs Sports and Entertainment when it came to the front office. He brought in Mike Babcock at a record setting coach salary, he brought in Mark Hunter who was at least in theory, the best prospect guy in the world, and he brought in Lou Lamoriello, who was certainly intended to bring a lot of structure and experience to the whole thing. None of it went as well as you’d hope, as Lamoriello’s ideas were dated, Hunter’s picks made little sense, and Babcock was abusive towards the players, but once Shanahan started applying a bit more due diligence to the recruitment process, the Leafs were able to bring in assistant coaches, and AHL personnel that other teams would never have access to, as well as putting in substantial resources into the player development department. That department will be the legacy that Shanahan leaves behind.
As Kyle Dubas departed the Maple Leafs organization it became clear that Shanahan also had his fingerprints on the roster. The Maple Leafs process of having the GM seek approval of Shanahan and then the MLSE board for transactions is something that needs to be expediated, but additionally we’ve seen Shanahan’s loyalty to Toronto’s “Core Four” forwards and expressed his belief in running back variations of the lineup centred around that group including Morgan Rielly as many times as possible. At a time when half the Core Four could be parting ways, it seems fitting that Shanahan exits as well.
Shanahan departing with nine straight playoff appearances to his name after just one playoff appearance in the nine seasons that preceded his arrival, that’s a sign of progress, or at least something progress adjacent, but with Matthews set to be this generation’s greatest goal scorer, both Marner and Nylander being elite wingers, and John Tavares’ being one of the biggest free agent signings in history, the bar was never set at just getting into the playoffs. The buck stops with Shanahan and maybe Treliving, just as it did with Kyle Dubas for not knowing how to turn that level of offensive talent into a playoff success story.
Ending the era now makes sense, but from an outsider’s perspective the hope would be that this isn’t being done hastily as a reaction to the Leafs’ second round exit. The playoffs might have been a performance indicator that would impact whether or not MLSE would negotiate with Shanahan, but ideally there should have been contingency plans being put in place in quiet, including the reasonable possibility that the Leafs General Manager would report directly to Pelley, or that Brad Treliving would be moved up into the President role or have it added to his responsibilities.
While not getting too far down the speculation road, the options for handling the Maple Leafs president role would be as follows:
- Shanahan is renewed as President. It seems unlikely but so has the past few years of running back the roster.
- Shanahan is fired and the position is left vacant. If Keith Pelley hasn’t come prepared with a candidate list, vacancy could be the way to go.
- Shanahan is fired and the position is filled externally. I’d imagine this prestigious position has a number of potential candidates, even some who might already be working for other teams, so I will limit my speculation to just noting the recent availability of Rob Blake.
- Shanahan is fired and Brad Treliving is given the dual role of President/GM. I’m not sure more responsibility is the answer for any Leafs GM.
- Shanahan is fired, Brad Treliving is promoted, and the Leafs fill their GM vacancy instead. I’m not sure Brad Treliving has done anything to warrant a promotion and this might be an attempt on my part to manifest GM Brandon Pridham.
Whatever happens in the coming days it will be the first of many big decisions faced by the organization. And while the lustre of the Shanahan era has certainly worn off in the past few seasons, it should be appreciated for putting the Leafs back in the top third of the league.
