The Celtics’ offense will be significantly different on Wednesday without Jayson Tatum (Achilles), who averaged 22.5 shots over the first four games of the series, so his absence could lead to more scoring opportunities for players like Jaylen Brown, Derrick White and Jrue Holiday. Tatum’s absence will be factored into the odds on betting apps, but could there be value in using any of these Celtics in Wednesday NBA player props with Tatum out and the Celtics (-4.5, 207.5) facing a win-or-go-home Game 5 against the Knicks at 7 p.m. ET?
Meanwhile, the Minnesota Timberwolves try to close out their series at home against the Golden State Warriors (+11.5, 202) at 9:30 p.m. ET. Anthony Edwards is coming off back-to-back 30-point performances, and his total points over/under is set for 27.5 for Wednesday NBA props.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. One of the Data Scientists behind the model, Stephen Oh (@StephenOhCBS), analyzed the sim results and broke down the supporting evidence to reveal which player props have the best value for today’s slate. The NBA odds could change, so act now for maximum value.
Mikal Bridges Over 14.5 points (-110)
Many Knicks fans have questioned throughout the season if Bridges was truly worth the five first-round picks sent in a package to the Brooklyn Nets for Bridges, but the 28-year-old’s performance this postseason has silenced any critics. Bridges had 23 points in Game 4 on Monday and he’s averaging 16.3 ppg over his last three games this series. He’s been especially dominant late in games with 54 points on 59% shooting in the fourth quarter this postseason. The model projects Bridges for 16.1 points on Wednesday and Oh believes Tatum being out specially helps Bridges. DraftKings is offering this at -110 odds.
“While he may not have been the primary defender or been primarily defended by Jayson Tatum, Tatum not playing does have a domino effect where the Knicks do not have to expend a bunch of energy dealing with Tatum on both ends of the court,” Oh noted. “Bridges should not have to spend quite so much energy and have plenty for the offensive end.”
Julius Randle Over 7.5 rebounds (+120)
Randle only had five rebounds in Game 4, but he had 10 rebounds in the contest before and averaged 7.1 rebounds per game this season. The 30-year-old has elevated his play this postseason, averaging 24.3 points per game this series against the Warriors compared to 18.7 ppg during the regular season, and he’s played at least 40 minutes in back-to-back games. The Timberwolves have the chance to close out the series at home without giving Stephen Curry the chance to return healthy, so expect a motivated Randle and Timberwolves team fighting for every rebound.
The model projects 8.3 rebounds for Randle on Wednesday. He has gone Over his total rebounds in seven of his last 10 games when he is favored and playing a top 10 defense. Randle is averaging 7.3 rebounds over his last three games, so he’s right at the total, and with plus-money odds, the model views this as a value play. Caesars Sportsbook is offering this at +120 odds.
Brandin Podziemski Over 1.5 made 3-pointers (-112)
Oh is aware of Podziemski’s struggles from deep in this series, shooting 3-for-17 (17.6%) with no games making multiple 3-pointers this series, but Podziemski averaged 1.8 made 3-pointers this season and that’s while often playing with a healthy Curry. Podziemski has taken at least four 3-pointers in each of the four games this series and is averaging 36 minutes over the last two games, so the opportunities should be there. After shooting 37.2% from beyond the arc this season, Oh sees value in a bounceback performance. FanDuel is offering this at -112 odds, while other sportsbooks have juiced the odds even higher.
“Expect him to have a nice regression to the mean game with no pressure to perform,” Oh said. “Jimmy Butler clearly is not right and is struggling to get clean looks vs. the bigger, longer, quicker Minnesota defenders, which leads to more field goal attempts for the other starters. He comes in with five straight games with no more than one made three, but he was 15-6 Over 1.5 before this stretch, and before the playoffs, was 5-1 over 1.5 vs. Minnesota.”
