The Minnesota Timberwolves took advantage of Stephen Curry’s absence in a 117-93 win over the Golden State Warriors on Thursday, and they will try to take a 2-1 series lead when they play at Golden State during the Saturday NBA schedule. Power forward Julius Randle led Minnesota with 24 points, 11 assists and seven rebounds in Game 2, shooting 10 of 17 from the floor. He averaged 18.7 points during the regular season, but he has upped his scoring average to 22.1 points in the NBA Playoffs. Should you include him in your NBA player prop bets on Saturday?
Randle has an over/under of 18.5 points in the latest NBA prop odds at DraftKings Sportsbook. Saturday’s slate also includes a showdown between the Knicks and Celtics at Madison Square Garden. The Knicks have won the first two games of the series, but the Celtics are 6-point road favorites in Game 3 in the latest NBA odds.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. One of the Data Scientists behind the model, Stephen Oh (@StephenOhCBS), analyzed the sim results and broke down the supporting evidence to reveal which player props have the best value for today’s slate. The NBA odds could change, so act now for maximum value.
Karl-Anthony Towns Over 1.5 made 3-pointers (+200)
Towns only attempted one 3-pointer in Game 2 after shooting one triple in Game 1, so oddsmakers are happy to offer plus-money on Towns making at least two threes on Saturday. However, he averages 1.9 made 3-pointers per game, and SportsLine’s model projects him to finish with 1.8 makes in this game to provide clear value on this line.
“The Knicks shocking success coming back from 20 pt second half leads in Games 1 and 2 is not a sustainable strategy, but getting KAT to take 6+ threes and make 2+ is a sustainable strategy that will help the team get off to faster starts,” Oh said. “Going to buy low on his 3 straight unders (8-3 under since late March 28th) and instead jump on his 1.9 avg, 43-26, 62.3% over trend he had before March 28th.” Other sportsbooks have this line as low as +148, while bet365 is offering the best odds at +200.
Donte DiVincenzo Over 3.5 rebounds (+115)
This is another plus-money opportunity due to the first two games of the series, when DiVincenzo finished with three rebounds in each game. He had 19 rebounds in five games against the Lakers, despite playing just 16 minutes in Game 2 of that series. DiVincenzo averages 3.7 rebounds and is projected to finish with 3.6 by the model, so the Over is the play on his rebounds prop.
“When players who ‘hustle’ like DiVincenzo are not shooting great (10 for his last 46 3pt for 21.7%) they play especially hard in other areas like rebounding to keep their minutes up,” Oh said.
Caesars Sportsbook is offering the best odds at +115. Bet it now at Caesars, where if you bet $1, you can double your winnings on your next 10 bets.
Rudy Gobert Over 18.5 points + rebounds (-118)
Gobert is facing an undersized Golden State team in this series, and he has recorded 20 combined rebounds through the first two games. He had 20 points + rebounds in Game 1 before finishing with 14 in the Game 2 blowout. The Warriors are expected to be more competitive at home in Game 3, which would likely give Gobert more minutes. SportsLine’s model has him finishing with 22.5 points + rebounds in a double-double effort.
FanDuel Sportsbook is offering the best line at -118. Bet it now at FanDuel, where you can get up to $200 in bonus bets with a $5 winning bet here.
Want more NBA picks for tonight?
- You’ve seen the model’s NBA prop picks for some of the most popular props on Saturday. Now, get NBA projections for every player prop at SportsLine.
- You can also view expert betting advice before making Saturday NBA picks or player props. Visit SportsLine now to see expert Bruce Marshall’s picks. He’s 120-93-1 (+1761) over his last 214 NBA picks and he already has a pick locked in for Saturday.
- SportsLine also has multiple experts who specialize in player props and team props, including Mike Barner, who is 159-108 (+3258) over his last 267 NBA player props picks. Visit SportsLine now to see who Barner is including in his NBA picks for Saturday.
