The 2025 NBA Playoffs will continue on Sunday with two Game 4 matchups in the conference semifinals. In the East, the Pacers hold a 2-1 series lead over the Cavaliers, while the Nuggets have a 2-1 advantage over the Thunder in the West. Superstars like Tyrese Haliburton, Donovan Mitchell, Nikola Jokic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander could take on significant action for NBA player props. However, you can often find the best value on role players who might be in line for expanded minutes due to a matchup or an injury.
Pacers forward Aaron Nesmith only averaged 12.0 points per game during the regular season, but he’s averaging 15.1 points per game during the postseason and 15.7 during the Cleveland series. However, the latest NBA props from FanDuel Sportsbook list his over/under for total points at 12.5 and you can get almost even money (-102) on the over.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. One of the Data Scientists behind the model, Stephen Oh (@StephenOhCBS), analyzed the sim results and broke down the supporting evidence to reveal which player props have the best value for today’s slate. The NBA odds could change, so act now for maximum value.
Michael Porter Jr. Over 11.5 points (-125)
Most of the major online sportsbooks have this NBA player prop listed at 12.5 with payouts between -102 and -115 on the Over, but the model is going to Hard Rock and paying a little extra juice to buy this over/under down to 11.5. Porter averaged 18.2 points per game during the regular season, and even though that number is down to 10.7 in the 2025 NBA Playoffs, he’s coming off a 21-point outing in Game 3 against the Thunder.
“Taking this over does run counter to our two other plays but with a projection of 15.6 points and a season average of 17.3 points this line is just too low to not take,” SportsLine data analyst Stephen Oh said. “If he was healthy the line would be 15.5 or more given his home average of 17.9 points (vs 16.7 on the road) and 12+ trend of 36-6, 85.7% at home (34-11 on the road).” You can also get 11.5 at BetMGM if you’re not in a state where Hard Rock is live, but you’ll pay a little extra juice (-135).
Pascal Siakam Over 17.5 points (-120)
The three-time NBA all-star has averaged at least 20 points per game in each of his last six seasons and he averaged 20.2 points per game in his first full season in Indiana. During this postseason, Siakam is averaging 18.3 points per game, but he’ still been incredibly efficient. He’s shooting 54.1% from the floor and 40.7% from the 3-point line, and he might be incentivized to come out aggressive after a blowout loss in Game 3 where he managed 18 points on 8-for-14 shooting in only 28 minutes.
“The model projects him for 20 points in this buy low spot as he has not scored 20 in his last five games,” Oh said. “His backups have either not been shooting well (Obi Toppin 1 for 7 in Game 3, just 2-9 from 3pt range in the series) or have not been playing (Jarace Walker just 16 minutes in the series) so Siakam should be a lock for 35+ minutes.” DraftKings is offering the best price with several books bumping this line up to 18.5 overnight.
Andrew Nembhard Under 21.5 points + rebounds + assists (-102)
You can get this number at 22.5 at most online sportsbooks but you’ll pay a lot more juice on the Under, with BetMGM offering -120 while Caesars and FanDuel are offering -125. However, the model is recommending you go to FanDuel to buy this line down to 21.5 for the better payout. Nembhard averaged 10.0 points, 5.0 rebounds and 3.3 assists (18.3 PRA) during the regular season and he only managed 10 points, four rebounds and four assists in Friday’s Game 3 loss to Cleveland. He’s gone Under on this prop in four of his last five games where Indiana has been a home underdog.
Want more NBA picks for tonight?
- You’ve seen the model’s NBA prop picks for some of the most popular props on Sunday. Now, get NBA projections for every player prop at SportsLine.
- You can also view expert betting advice before making Sunday NBA picks or player props. Visit SportsLine now to see expert Bruce Marshall’s picks. He’s 123-93-1 (+2061) over his last 214 NBA picks and he already has a pick locked in for Sunday.
- SportsLine also has multiple experts who specialize in player props and team props, including Mike Barner, who is 160-109 (+3254) over his last 269 NBA player props picks. Visit SportsLine now to see who Barner is including in his NBA picks for Sunday.
