The Los Angeles Lakers lost their homecourt advantage in a Game 1 loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves on Saturday, so they’ll be in desperate need of a victory to avoid going down 0-2 heading to Minnesota. Luka Doncic was dominant with 37 points, but LeBron James finished with just 19 points, five rebounds and three assists, well below his NBA player props for Game 1. Will the 40-year-old future Hall of Famer rebound for a top performance and hit his Overs in Tuesday NBA props, or is Father Time catching up to the legend? The Pacers will host the Bucks (+4.5, 220) and the Thunder will host the Grizzlies (+14.5, 229) as well on Tuesday, so who should you include in NBA prop bets? James is +160 for a double-double and +1200 for a triple-double on FanDuel Sportsbook.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. One of the Data Scientists behind the model, Stephen Oh (@StephenOhCBS), analyzed the sim results and broke down the supporting evidence to reveal which player props have the best value for today’s slate. The NBA odds could change, so act now for maximum value.
Kyle Kuzma Over 5.5 rebounds + assists (-110)
If you’ve spent any time on social media over the last few days, you’ve likely seen the all-zero stat line of Kuzma from Game 1 alongside his 22 minutes played. Kuzma failed to record a single point, rebound, assist, steal or block in Game 1 and although his production has dropped with the Bucks from where it was with the Wizards, he still averaged 14.5 points, 5.6 rebounds and 2.2 assists over 33 games with the Bucks this season. The Bucks lost by 19 points to the Pacers in Game 1, largely due to Kuzma’s struggles, as both he and the team will be focused on a better result on Tuesday.
“The reason I am taking his rebounds + assists over his points is those are stats where you are being a good teammate and putting in maximum effort, things he can control even if his shot is off again,” Oh said. “He averages around 7.5 rebounds + assists as a Wizard and Buck and this season he actually averaged +1.8 more in road games (8.8) than home games.” BetMGM is offering this at -110 odds while other sportsbooks have Over 5.5 priced in the -130 and -140 range.
Ja Morant Over 3.5 turnovers (-105)
The Thunder defense was a significant reason why Oklahoma City entered the postseason with the NBA’s best record and turnovers were a major part of that success. Oklahoma City forced the most turnovers (16.9), led by the most steals (6.7), in the league this season as the Thunder had the No. 3 scoring defense, allowing just 107.2 points per game. The Thunder dominated in a 131-80 victory in Game 1 and although Morant only had one turnover, he also only played 26 minutes as Memphis’ offensive game plan was not working at all. They’ll need Morant to be more aggressive on Tuesday, and although that could lead to more success, it could also lead to more turnovers. Oh notes Morant accounts for 25% of the team’s turnovers this season and the model is projecting 19 turnovers for Memphis on Friday, which lands Morant at around five turnovers.
“I think Ja will look to dominate offensively given he’s the only one on Memphis who can create his own shot and his usage will be even higher than normal,” Oh said. “Even if he plays well, he could still have four turnovers.” DraftKings is offering Morant Over 3.5 turnovers at -105 odds.
LeBron James Over 1.5 made 3-pointer (-158)
Oh is trusting James’ season-long trends versus his recent production at Crypto.com Arena with this wager. James averages 2.5 made 3-pointers and has gone Over this number in 25 of 35 home games (71.4%) this season. But the Mount Rushmore NBA great has shot just 2 of 13 from beyond the arc over his last three games, two of those coming at home. The model projects James to make 2.3 triples on 6.4 attempts and James made multiple 3-pointers in three of five postseason games last year, making three triples in each of those contests.
“I trust his season-long 43.1% home 3-point percentage over his recent 15% shooting,” Oh said. “Minnesota averages the fifth-most 3-point attempts in the league, shoot the fourth-best percentage from three and are better than opponents in combined rebounding + turnover differential. All this means is you almost have to trade 3-point haymakers to beat Minnesota since you are unlikely to dominate them on the boards or in turnover margin.” FanDuel is offering the best odds at -158 while multiple betting apps have already moved the odds to -175.
Want more NBA picks for tonight?
- You’ve seen the model’s NBA prop picks for the most popular props on Tuesday. Now, get NBA projections for every player prop at SportsLine.
- You can also view expert betting advice before making Tuesday NBA picks or player props. Visit SportsLine now to see expert Bruce Marshall’s picks. He’s 100-69-1 (+2403) over his last 170 NBA picks.
- SportsLine also has multiple experts who specialize in player props and team props, including Jason La Canfora, who is 23-9 (+1288) over his last 32 NBA team props. Visit SportsLine now to see who La Canfora is including in his NBA team prop picks for Tuesday.
