After a wild Monday night in the NBA with two upsets, the Indiana Pacers (+9, 229.5) and Golden State Warriors (+7, 207.5) will try to continue that trend with road victories against the Cleveland Cavaliers and Minnesota Timberwolves, respectively. The Pacers are looking to flip their series after taking Game 1 behind Andrew Nembhard (23 points), Tyrese Haliburton (22), Aaron Nesmith (17) and Pascal Siakam (17). Even after scoring 23 points, Nembhard’s over/under for total points is 12.5 in the latest NBA player props on Tuesday, so how should he factor into making Tuesday NBA prop bets? Meanwhile, Buddy Hield had a huge Game 7 for the Warriors with 33 points and is +1200 on DraftKings Sportsbook to reach 20, so is that a longshot play to include in Tuesday NBA prop picks?
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. One of the Data Scientists behind the model, Stephen Oh (@StephenOhCBS), analyzed the sim results and broke down the supporting evidence to reveal which player props have the best value for today’s slate. The NBA odds could change, so act now for maximum value.
Max Strus Over 9.5 points (-115)
Strus averaged 11 points per game in Cleveland’s sweep over Miami, and after back-to-back rough shooting performances in going a combined 3-for-15 from the field, Oh expects a bounce-back performance from the reliable shooter. The 29-year-old shot 44.2% from the field, his best since averaging just 4.8 shots per game in the 2020-21 NBA season, including shooting 38.6% on 3-pointers, this season. He played 32 minutes in Game 1 despite his off shooting and still finished with seven points on 2 of 9 from the field, so the usage, minutes, season-long averages and Cleveland injuries have Oh confident Tuesday.
“With both Evan Mobley and De’Andre Hunter dealing with injuries, and Darius Garland not a lock to play or play his full minutes, he could be in for more than the nine field goal attempts we are projecting.” Oh said. Oh picked Strus at 9.5 points, but some sportsbooks have already moved his over/under to 10.5 points. But with the model projecting Strus at 11.1 points, he still sees value in playing Strus Over 10.5 points.
Anthony Edwards Under 41.5 points + rebounds + assists (-110)
Oh notes this isn’t a negative play toward Edwards, despite betting Unders often being that case. Oh said he expects Edwards’ increased defensive focus to potentially take away from some of his scoring aggression. Edwards has also played more of a facilitator role in the Lakers series with 7.8 assists per game compared to 4.6 per game during the regular season. He also averaged nine rebounds against Los Angeles compared to 5.9 during the year. Edwards averaged just a 37.3 PRA against Golden State over the last two seasons, going Under in five of seven games, and that’s without Jimmy Butler being on the floor, adding another offensive and defensive challenge for Edwards.
“The 41.5 PRA line is based on his season average of 38 with a bump up for extra usage in the playoffs, but in these playoffs Edwards is emphasizing rebounds and assists, which obviously count as one vs. a bucket that counts for two or three,” Oh said. “The Under is 29-12, 70.7% at home this season (66.7% overall).” Oh played this at Under 41.5, but many betting apps have already moved the number down to 40.5. With the model projecting a 35.9 PRA for Tuesday, Oh still sees strong value at Under 40.5. BetMGM is offering the best odds at Under 40.5 at -110 odds.
Jimmy Butler Under 34.5 points + rebounds + assists (-115)
Butler just barely went Over this number in Game 7 with 20 points, eight rebounds and seven assists, but he needed 45 minutes to do so. That was a win-or-go-home contest, so that’s why Butler played 45 of 48 minutes, but the 35-year-old is unlikely to play that many minutes in a Game 1. He played 42 minutes in two of the five games he played earlier in the series against Houston as Butler missed Game 3 with a pelvic injury.
Butler went Under his PRA as a road underdog in six of his last seven games, averaging just a 20 PRA in those contests. The model projects Butler for a 29.8 PRA total on Tuesday as the Warriors have a short turnaround following Sunday night’s Game 7 contest. Bet365 is offering this at -115 odds.
Want more NBA picks for tonight?
- You’ve seen the model’s NBA prop picks for the most popular props on Tuesday. Now, get NBA projections for every player prop at SportsLine.
- You can also view expert betting advice before making Tuesday NBA picks or player props. Visit SportsLine now to see expert Bruce Marshall’s picks. He’s 118-86-1 (+2332) over his last 205 NBA picks and he already has a pick locked in for Tuesday.
- SportsLine also has multiple experts who specialize in player props and team props, including Matt Severance, who is 155-86-1 (+3061.25) over his last 242 NBA picks. Visit SportsLine now to see who Severance is including in his NBA picks for Tuesday.
