Despite hitting timely shots for the New York Knicks, Jalen Brunson is underperforming his season averages in points and assists against the Celtics, a concerning trend for anyone interested in playing his Overs for NBA player props on Monday. Brunson has received praise throughout the league for his closing ability, but how should Brunson factor into your Monday NBA prop bets when the New York Knicks host the Boston Celtics (-6.5, 208.5) for a 7:30 p.m. ET start? The Golden State Warriors will host the Minnesota Timberwolves (-5.5, 200.5) at 10 p.m. ET with Stephen Curry (hamstring) still out. Jimmy Butler has a total points over/under at 26.5 for Monday NBA props.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. One of the Data Scientists behind the model, Stephen Oh (@StephenOhCBS), analyzed the sim results and broke down the supporting evidence to reveal which player props have the best value for today’s slate. The NBA odds could change, so act now for maximum value.
Jayson Tatum Under 10.5 rebounds (-110)
Tatum had nine rebounds in Game 3 and the model projects him for 8.2 rebounds on Monday. Tatum has been more aggressive on the glass during the postseason, averaging 12 rebounds per game during the playoffs, but he’s still gone Under this number in three of seven games, including two of three road games. BetMGM is offering the under here at -110 odds while other sports betting apps have this play between -120 and -130
The six-time All-Star has gone Under his rebounding number in eight of his last 10 road games against a team with a winning record, averaging 6.9 total rebounds per game during that span. The 27-year-old averaged 8.7 rebounds per game during the regular season and he’s finished with fewer than 10 rebounds in all three games at Madison Square Garden this year.
Kristaps Porzingis Over 1.5 steals + blocks (+115)
Porzingis had three blocks in Game 3 against the Knicks over 19 minutes, the most he’s played all series after combining for just 27 minutes over the first two games as he recovers from an illness. But broadcasters have been speaking as if the 7-foot-2 center has been feeling better as the series progresses and the model projects Porzingis at 1.6 steals + blocks when playing 22 minutes and 2.2 in 28.8 minutes, so if his trend continues of playing more, this could be a strong plus-money value play for Monday. bet365 sportsbook has the best odds on this bet at +115
“If he plays fewer minutes, he can still make a significant defensive impact, as seen in Game 3 where he had three blocks in just 19 minutes,” Oh said. “Despite season trends, this bet offers value at +125 due to his potential defensive contributions. … Porzingis has not had a steal in his last three games, but had nine in his previous four games following a previous three-game ‘steal-less’ stretch.”
Jonathan Kuminga Over 1.5 blocks + steals (+170)
The Warriors took a significant offensive hit with Curry’s hamstring injury, but Kuminga has taken advantage of the moment to earn himself more minutes. The 22-year-old had 30 points over 36 minutes in Game 3 after having 18 points in 26 minutes in Game 2. He had two blocks in Game 3 and his recent play will likely lead to more minutes again on Monday. Kuminga has had at least two steals + blocks in nine of 18 games he’s played at least 28 minutes this season.
“We are projecting Kuminga for just over 1.5 steals and blocks, so getting +170 on a line that our model would set at +100 offers good value,” Oh said. “Steve Kerr has struggled to fit Kuminga into his vision, but Kuminga is the only player physically capable of competing with the longer, younger, athletic Timberwolves while also being coordinated enough to make a shot. Kerr has no choice but to play Kuminga major minutes.” Bet365 is offering the best odds at +170.
