The Oklahoma City Thunder have their backs against the wall entering Game 4 of the 2025 NBA Finals against the Indiana Pacers.
Indiana pulled off a second upset in this series, winning Game 3 as a 5.5-point home underdog to take a 2-1 series lead. The Pacers are just two wins away from an NBA title, and they’ve won two series already in the playoffs where they were set as underdogs in the betting market.
That remains the case in the Finals, as Indiana is still +185 to win the Finals entering Game 4 at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indiana.
However, the odds for the Thunder to win the title have shrunk drastically over the last 24 hours. OKC has not lost back-to-back games in the playoffs, but if it does it’ll fall behind 3-1 in the series, a deficit only one team (the 2016 Cleveland Cavaliers) has come back from in Finals history.
Luckily for Thunder fans and bettors, oddsmakers have OKC favored to win Game 4 on the road.
Here’s a look at the opening odds, trends to watch and more ahead of Friday’s contest.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Spread
Moneyline
Total
Based on these odds, the Thunder have an implied probability of 69.23 percent to win Game 4 and even this series. Indiana has an implied probability of 35.09 percent to take a 3-1 series lead.
When it comes to the series odds for this matchup, things have shifted drastically in the Pacers’ favor, as they’ve gone all the way down to +185 underdogs. OKC, which was a -525 favorite before Game 3, is still favored, but at a price of -220.
The most likely outcome in the series “correct score” odds is for the Thunder to win this matchup in seven games (+170), while the Pacers’ most likely outcome is winning in six games (+500).
Even though the Thunder won 68 games in the regular season, Indiana certainly feels undervalued now that it’s just two wins away from the title.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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Find Peter Dewey’s NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.
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