Logan’s prediction: Jalen Williams’ recent shooting slump is an outlier, so expect him to bounce back from deep in Game 4.
Photo By – Imagn Images. Indiana Pacers star Pascal Siakam and Oklahoma City forward Jalen Williams.
Heading into tonight’s Game 4 at Gainbridge Fieldhouse, the Oklahoma City Thunder trail the Indiana Pacers 2-1 in the NBA Finals.
Despite Jalen Williams’ 26 points, OKC’s depth fell short in Game 3. If the Thunder bench can’t step up, Williams and the starters need to carry the load.
As a result, my Thunder vs. Pacers predictions look for Williams to sharpen his shooting from distance.
Read more in our NBA picks for Friday, June 13, with tip-off set for 8:30 p.m. ET on ABC.
Who will win Thunder vs Pacers Game 4?
After the Pacers’ upset as home underdogs in Game 3, sportsbooks are prepping for an OKC bounce-back.
The Thunder have stayed composed after losses, and I’m backing them to win on the road and tie this series up.
Moneyline prediction: Thunder will win (-230 at bet365)
Thunder vs Pacers prediction
My best bet: Jalen Williams Over 1.5 3-pointers made (+100 at bet365)
After two so-so showings in the NBA Finals, Jalen Williams looked much better on offense in the Oklahoma City Thunder‘s loss in Game 3 (if you ignore the four turnovers).
With Shai Gilgeous-Alexander slow out of the blocks, the Thunder’s other star put up 26 points on 50% shooting — a needed correction after shooting a collective 11-for-33 in the opening two contests.
But even with Williams leading OKC in offense, his touch from beyond the arc remains cold, as he went 1-for-2 from deep in Game 3. The small forward is 3-for-11 for the series and is hitting at a 27% clip from outside going back to Game 5 of the Western Conference Finals (4-for-15 from 3-point range).
Heading into the finals, one of the biggest X-factors in favor of the Indiana Pacers was their 3-point prowess. While the Thunder’s perimeter play was up-and-down, the Pacers brought a more consistent threat from distance, and that’s played out in this series with Indiana recording two more triples per game than OKC through three meetings.
Williams is a much better 3-point shooter than his recent performance would indicate. Before going chilly in that series finale versus Minnesota, the 6-foot-5 forward was connecting at a 32% rate in the postseason and knocked down two or more triples in 10 of his first 15 playoff games.
Williams has drawn tougher defenders in Pascal Siakam and Aaron Nesmith in this series. That said, he’s still seen his share of space on the perimeter.
Ten of his 11 total 3-point attempts are considered “open” or “wide open,” with no defenders within four or more feet. He’s made only three of those clean looks from long range, including 2 of 6 with no defenders within six or more feet.
Through three games with Indiana, Williams’ 3-point prop has closed at 1.5 makes O/U, but the vig on the Over has ranged from -135 in Game 1 to -125 in Game 2 to -140 in Game 3. His 3-point market was as high as Over 1.5 -175 for Game 5 of the WCF.
After four straight games with only one made triple, Williams’ Over 1.5 3-pointers is paying EVEN money at bet365.
Player projections for Game 4 range from 1.8 to 2.1 made shots from beyond the arc from Williams, solid value to buyback the Over after four straight Under 1.5 3-point winners.
Thunder vs Pacers same-game parlay
Jalen Williams 2+ 3-pointers made
Jalen Williams 5+ assists
Thunder moneyline
Williams took just two shots from beyond the arc in Game 3, but OKC needs big buckets from him. Projections are leaning heavily toward two makes from distance Friday.
Williams’ advanced stats showed seven potential assists in Game 3, despite recording only three dimes. Before that, he had five or more assists in 15 of his first 18 playoff games.
Oklahoma City is 18-2 SU off a loss on the year, including a perfect 5-0 SU off a loss in the playoffs.
Our +1100 Thunder vs Pacers SGP flier
Taking our best bet from above, we’re getting a bit more aggressive with this long-shot SGP to play:
Pascal Siakam 5+ assists
Jalen Williams 2+ 3-pointers
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 7+ assists
Obi Toppin 1+ 3-pointers
- Siakam 5+ assists – Siakam was used in the high post more in Game 3, which generated 9.0 potential assists. He dished out only four dimes but the Pacers found success with that spacing scheme and will use it again tonight.
- Jalen Williams 2+ 3-pointers – Williams has been ice cold from deep in the Finals but is much better 3-point shooter and his models call for two triples in Game 4.
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 7+ assists – SGA touches the ball on every possession and recorded 13.0 potential assists over the first two games of the series, before just 7.0 in a rough Game 3. His projections sit just short of seven dimes.
- Obi Toppin 1+ 3-pointers – Toppin is taking his share of 3-point looks in the series and has made at least one triple in four of his last six outings. His Game 4 forecast sits at 1.6 makes from distance.
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Thunder vs Pacers odds
Thunder vs Pacers live odds
Thunder vs Pacers opening odds
- Spread: Oklahoma City -5.5 | Indiana +5.5
- Moneyline: Oklahoma City -225 | Indiana +200
- Over/Under: Over 225 | Under 225
Odds courtesy of bet365
Thunder vs Pacers spread and Over/Under analysis
• Following Indiana’s win as a 5.5-point home underdog in Game 3, bookies opened the Pacers as 6-point pups inside Gainbridge Fieldhouse. Indiana is 7-2 SU and 6-3 ATS as a host during the NBA Playoffs.
• The Over/Under for Game 4 opened at 225.5 points — a half-point shorter than the closing number for Game 3, which stayed below the total. So far this series, the Pacers and Thunder have produced a 1-2 O/U count.
• According to Covers Consensus, 59% of picks are taking the points with the home side while 60% of total picks like the Over on Friday night.
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Thunder vs Pacers trend
Oklahoma City is 4-4 SU as a road favorite in the NBA Playoffs but has yet to cover the spread in those eight outings as road chalk. Find more NBA betting trends for Thunder vs. Pacers.
Thunder vs Pacers betting resources
How to watch Thunder vs Pacers
| Location | Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN |
| Date | Friday, 6-13-2025 |
| Tip-off | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ABC |
Thunder vs Pacers latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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