We’ve got a battle of first and second place in the Western Conference tonight as Houston hosts Oklahoma City. As Tom Oldfield explains, the Thunder’s depth scoring will prove too much for the Rockets to overcome.
Photo By – Imagn Images. Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (2).
A 70-win season is still in play for the Oklahoma City Thunder, and they’ll go for a 12th straight victory tonight in a marquee Western Conference matchup against the Houston Rockets.
Houston has flashed an upside of its own with an 8-2 stretch, but my Thunder vs Rockets predictions point to more magic from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and an OKC squad that’s thrived on the road all year.
Take a closer look at this April 4 battle with my NBA picks and betting tips.
Thunder vs Rockets prediction
My best bet: Thunder -6 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
It probably undersells the Oklahoma City Thunder’s dominance to call this a showdown between the top two teams in the West. The Thunder have a 14.5-game edge in the No.1 spot, yet there’s no sign of Mark Daigneault’s men taking their foot off the gas.
OKC has covered the spread in all 11 games on the current win streak, and the visitors should have their first-choice starting five on the floor tonight against the Houston Rockets.
The Thunder have been ATS monsters all season, with a 51-22-4 mark that almost rivals their overall record, so I’m laying the points and counting on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, and Chet Holmgren to anchor another two-way masterclass tonight.
Houston has dropped seven of the past 10 meetings between these teams, and I’m pouring cold water on the hosts’ strong recent form. The Rockets have beaten up the Utah Jazz (twice) and Phoenix Suns, but scoring consistently against the Thunder’s relentless wings is a whole different proposition.
Though SGA exploded for 51 points against a depleted Houston team last month, the smart money says we’ll see a more balanced offensive effort here. The visitors have scored 119+ points in eight of their last 10 contests, including their last five outings, and they reached that total against the Detroit Pistons on Wednesday despite shooting 10-for-38 from downtown.
The Rockets will lose some of their defensive intensity with Dillon Brooks serving a suspension, and I see the Thunder pulling away for their 65th win of the season.
Thunder vs Rockets same-game parlay
Thunder -6
Lu Dort Over 2.5 threes
Amen Thompson Over 6.5 rebounds
Lu Dort conversations tend to focus on the defensive end of the floor, where he’s a legit DPOY candidate, but I’m targeting his sharpshooting in tonight’s clash. Dort made 45% of his 3-pointers in March, and he’s nailed 3+ triples in five straight games.
Minutes alongside Gilgeous-Alexander continue to provide wide-open looks, and I see Dort punishing the Rockets for hiding their weaker defenders on him.
Houston desperately needs a big night from Amen Thompson to combat the Thunder’s dynamic backcourt, and I like his chances of being a difference-maker on the glass. Thompson has grabbed 9+ boards in 11 of his past 14 contests, and he ended up with seven rebounds against OKC back in December.
The hosts should have an edge in the rebounding battle, and they’ll need second-chance points to withstand the Thunder’s 3-point barrage. I’m taking the Over on a line of 6.5.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Thunder vs Rockets odds
Thunder vs Rockets live odds
Thunder vs Rockets opening odds
- Spread: Oklahoma City -6 (-110) | Houston +6 (-110)
- Moneyline: Oklahoma City -245 | Houston +200
- Over/Under: Over 228.5 (-110) | Under 228.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Thunder vs Rockets spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Rockets are 28-11 at Toyota Center this year, but the Thunder’s 29-7 road mark makes them clear favorites, though the line has dropped a little after climbing to 7.
- OKC has hit the 1H moneyline in 16 straight games.
- The Over is 4-1 in the past five meetings between these teams, and it’s 7-2-1 in Houston’s last 10 contests.
- The Rockets rank in the bottom third of the NBA in field goal percentage and 3-point percentage.
Thunder vs Rockets trend
The Thunder have cashed the Team Total Over in 40 of their last 58 games. Find more NBA betting trends for Thunder vs. Rockets.
How to watch Thunder vs Rockets
| Location | Toyota Center, Houston, TX |
| Date | Friday, 4-4-2025 |
| Tip-off | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | Space City Home Network, FanDuel Sports Network – Oklahoma |
Thunder vs Rockets latest injuries
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