The Los Angeles Lakers’ backs are against the wall heading into Game 2 of the first round at home against the Minnesota Timberwolves.
Los Angeles struggled defensively in Game 1, and outside of Luka Doncic it struggled overall on offense in a home loss – just the 11th time all season the Lakers lost at home.
Now, Los Angeles is set as a 5.5-point favorite at DraftKings in Game 2, even though oddsmakers have flipped the Timberwolves to the favorite to win the series.
Minnesota’s size was a factor in Game 1, as Naz Reid and Julius Randle beat the Lakers at times down low because of their lack of rim protection. Plus, Minnesota hit 21 of 42 shots from beyond the arc (which it likely won’t do again), keeping the Lakers at bay.
The Timberwolves finished the regular season with the fourth-best net rating in the NBA, and they have put the Lakers on notice early in this series.
Can Los Angeles, which was one of the better teams against the spread when favored at home this season, even this series tonight?
Let’s take a look at the latest odds, player props to bet and my prediction for Game 2 of this first-round clash.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Spread
Moneyline
Total
Timberwolves Injury Report
Lakers Injury Report
Minnesota Timberwolves Best NBA Prop Bet
Anthony Edwards missed time with a cramp in Game 1 and finished with just 22 points on 8-of-22 shooting from the field.
While it wasn’t Ant’s best game, I can’t look past his usage in this one. He took 22 shots (nine from 3) in just over 35 minutes, and the Timberwolves were able to get just about whatever they wanted on offense against the Lakers defense.
With a lack of rim protection for L.A., I expect Ant to shoot better in Game 2, and he could end up playing more minutes as well. During the regular season, Edwards averaged 27.6 points per game, and he has averaged at least 25.2 points per game in every playoff run in his young career.
Los Angeles Lakers Best NBA Prop Bet
Luka Doncic was held to just one assist in Game 1, but I don’t expect that to continue in Game 2.
A big reason for Doncic’s lack of assists was the lack of shot-making by his teammates. All Lakers not named Luka shot just 21-for-61 from the field in Game 1.
Doncic averaged 7.7 assists per game in the regular season and averages 8.2 for his career, so we’re getting a little discount in Game 2. Luka – despite seeing assist numbers take a hit in L.A. – still had seven or more dimes in 14 of his 21 games since March 1, averaging 7.9 assists per game during that stretch.
The Lakers have a great record against the spread when favored at home this season (21-12), but the Timberwolves are equally as good as road underdogs, going 10-5 against the spread in 15 games.
This series could be a matchup nightmare for the Lakers if they are unable to find a way to get stops on the defensive end.
The Wolves – unlike most teams – have the bodies on defense to match up with Luka, Austin Reaves and LeBron in a pretty decent fashion. You’re never going to shut all of those guys down, but the Wolves kept everyone but Doncic in check in Game 1 and won easily.
The Lakers’ lack of rim protection is an issue if Reid and Randle are able to get to the cup at will, and Los Angeles’ lack of 3-point shooting from its supporting players was impossible to overcome in Game 1.
The Timberwolves aren’t going to hit 21 3-pointers again (if they do, I’ll tip my cap), but I still think they can cover the spread in this game.
After a stretch of being the No. 1 defense in the NBA earlier this season, Los Angeles has bottomed out a bit and fallen to lower than league average in defensive rating (17th overall for the season).
It’s going to be tough to trust the Lakers to pull away if they can’t string together stops against this Wolves attack.
Pick: Timberwolves +5.5 (-108 at DraftKings)
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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Find Peter Dewey’s NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.
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