Timberwolves vs. Lakers: What I like and don’t like about NBA playoffs matchup

LOS ANGELES — For the NBA romantics out there, for those who see the game as more than X’s and O’s on a white board and Defensive Real Plus-Minus (DRPM) on a spreadsheet, what is not to love about the first-round playoff series between the Los Angeles Lakers and the Minnesota Timberwolves?

Larger themes leap off the page, like a script being shopped around these Tinseltown streets. The young star on the rise in Anthony Edwards versus the gray-bearded lion in LeBron James. The Timberwolves looking for redemption after Luka Dončić laid waste to them in the conference finals last year. All of those banners hanging in the Lakers’ arena that say Minneapolis on them.

There are ghosts and specters and nemeses all over this series. Two good basketball teams are playing some of their best ball of the season as the playoffs begin.

With that in mind, here are some things I like and don’t like about this matchup for the Wolves.

The numbers

I like how the advanced analytics look for Minnesota.

It is difficult to find anyone who does not have a 612 area code in their cell phone who is picking the Timberwolves to win this series. With Dončić, James and Austin Reaves forming a superb Big 3, the Lakers and their fans should be very confident entering any series.

But a closer look at the numbers paints this as a much closer matchup. Dončić played his first game with the Lakers on Feb. 10. From that point on, the Lakers went 19-13, including 1-3 in games Dončić did not play during that stretch. They had the 14th-ranked offense, 17th-ranked defense and 13th-ranked net rating (plus-2.2) during that period. Removing the games that Dončić did not play, the Lakers’ net rating rose to plus-4.4, which would have put them 10th since Feb. 10.

The Timberwolves went 19-10 with the No. 6 offense, No. 9 defense and No. 6 net rating (plus-7.1). Strength of schedule certainly comes into play when looking at these numbers. The Wolves had a very soft finish to the season, which can help pad those numbers. They beat the Oklahoma City Thunder and Denver Nuggets twice in those 29 games and the New York Knicks, Detroit Pistons and Memphis Grizzlies.

Meanwhile, the Lakers beat the Nuggets, Houston Rockets and the LA Clippers twice, in addition to the Wolves, Thunder, Knicks and Grizzlies.

Crunchtime

I do not like the Wolves’ chances if this series lives in clutch moments.

How did the Timberwolves have such a high net rating and yet still finish sixth in the West? They played a league-high 46 games that went into clutch time, defined by the league as within five points or less in the final five minutes. Good news, right? That means they were in all these games!

Well, the Wolves also lost a league-high 26 of those games. If they just won four more, they would have been the No. 2-seeded team. But they didn’t. They were often far too predictable with the ball almost exclusively in Edwards’ hands, and it often ended in a heavily contested, step-back 3. They had the 20th-ranked offensive rating and 24th-ranked defensive rating (yikes) in the clutch this season. Their net rating was minus-8.4 points per 100 possessions. The Detroit Pistons (minus-8.9) were the only team with a winning record that was worse.

Since Dončić started playing for LA, the Lakers went 9-7 in the clutch, with the sixth-rated offense and the 21st-ranked defense. Their net rating of 0.3 is 15th-best over that span, a number that might be depressed a little bit by Dončić acclimating to his new environment.

He cooked the Wolves in the playoffs last season and was showing signs down the stretch of finding his groove. Dončić averaged a very Luka-like 30.5 points, 7.2 rebounds and 6.9 assists over his final 13 games. He made 43 percent of his 3s during that time after struggling from behind the arc to start his Lakers career. His shot making for the Mavericks in the West finals last year was both incredible and entirely repeatable for one of the game’s great tough shot makers.

Going up against Dončić, James and Reaves, a crafty shot creator in his own right, in clutch time is a nightmare scenario for the Wolves. Those players are going to get good looks most times down the floor, especially from Dončić, who just has not been bothered by ace perimeter defender Jaden McDaniels.

The Wolves spent a good deal of time over the last four practices going over clutch time strategy, and they are going to have to be much better on both ends in this series.

Plan B

I like the options Timberwolves coach Chris Finch has at his disposal in this series. When they made the trade of Karl-Anthony Towns for Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo just before training camp, the Wolves gave up the best player in the trade. When that happens, it’s usually a clear win for the team that gets that player.

It is well-documented that the Wolves did have real financial reasons for making the trade, setting themselves up to get under the second apron and unlock some team-building mechanisms that would have been unavailable to them if they kept KAT’s max contract on the books.

They also said at the time that the trade was also made for basketball reasons. They liked the versatility and toughness they were getting with Randle and DiVincenzo. The two-for-one deal also made them a little deeper.

Last year’s team was built to play big with Gobert and Towns controlling the frontcourt. This year’s team can go a few different ways. The Wolves will likely start conventionally, with Edwards, Gobert, Randle, Jaden McDaniels and Mike Conley, trying to use their size against the Lakers’ bigger lineup with Jaxson Hayes at center.

They can also play smaller with Naz Reid and Randle in the frontcourt to combat the Lakers when they go to a preferred lineup with Rui Hachimura and James up front and Hayes on the bench.

Once Finch starts dipping into his bench and mixing and matching, he has some formidable arrows in the quiver that win in different ways. A lineup of Edwards, DiVincenzo, Alexander-Walker, Randle and Reid is an NBA-best 20 points per 100 possessions better than the league-average offense in non-garbage time possessions, per Cleaning the Glass.

Finch also can deploy a lineup of Edwards, DiVincenzo, Alexander-Walker, Reid and Gobert that is 13.6 points better than the league-average defense, the third-best in the NBA.

While he has been reluctant to expand the rotation beyond his top eight when games get tighter, he does have Jaylen Clark, another solid wing defender, to throw at Reaves and Dončić.

Beating the Lakers will require Finch to be nimble with his lineups to respond to what Los Angeles is throwing at him. Fortunately, he has several levers to pull should he need to.

Sizing up the Lakers

I don’t like how the Lakers are called “small.”

As soon as the Timberwolves found out they were playing the Lakers last weekend, Gobert said he understood the assignment. The Lakers are at their best when they play smaller with James, Hachimura and Dorian Finney-Smith across the frontcourt. That should open some opportunities for Gobert to do some damage at the rim.

“We know that a lot of teams are going to put two on Ant, or they’re going to switch,” Gobert said. “Regardless, I’ve got to dominate. Me being on the glass, me making the right play, me finishing around the rim at a high level is going to be key for us.”

Finch has said that he wants the Lakers to react to the Timberwolves and not the other way around. He would prefer not to downsize and take Gobert off the floor because of the rebounding and defense the Wolves lose when he is on the bench. The Wolves are 7.8 points per 100 better on defense this season when Rudy is on the floor.

But the simple assumption that Gobert will overpower the Lakers if they go small seems to look past the fact that they are not small. When the 7-footer Hayes goes to the bench for the 6-8 Hachimura at center, the Lakers do lose some height. But they are still a big team because James (250 pounds), Hachimura (230), Finney-Smith (220) and the long-armed Jarred Vanderbilt are wide bodies that can cover ground on defense.

With Dončić (230 pounds) and Reaves (6-5) both big at the guard positions, the Lakers can still be overwhelming from a physical perspective, even while giving up so much height.

It makes finding a defensive matchup for Conley, who is so important to the Wolves offense, a challenging one. It also means that when Gobert comes out and Finch goes with a Randle-Reid combo at the 4-5, those two will have to rebound at a high level to keep the Lakers from getting second chances.

Playoff Donte

I like that we get to see if DiVincenzo can raise his game in the playoffs for Minnesota the same way he did for the Knicks last year. He averaged 17.8 points and 4.0 rebounds in the playoffs for the Knicks last season after averaging 15.5 points during the regular season.

DiVincenzo flourished with the added responsibility. He started every game in the playoffs and scored 39 points in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference semifinals.

When he was traded to Minnesota, it took him some time to find his way in a new state with a new team. He only shot 33 percent from 3-point range during his first 20 games with the Wolves, but he has settled in well since returning from a suspension for a fight with the Detroit Pistons.

DiVincenzo’s feel for his team and new environment is starting to take hold. The Timberwolves might be underdogs in the series, but they look more formidable now that DiVincenzo has found his shooting touch. He is hitting 44 percent from 3-point range and also gives the Wolves a lot of size and physicality on defense.

The roar of the MSG crowd from last season was still ringing in DiVincenzo’s ears in the early days of his arrival in Minnesota. He was, eventually, able to put that behind him and connect with this team, and he enters the playoffs with his confidence riding high.

“You know what you’re capable of doing throughout the playoffs, so your starting confidence level is higher, I would say,” DiVincenzo said. 

Keeping their cool

I don’t like the Wolves’ chances of maintaining their composure when the whistles start.

Officiating is always a talking point in the playoffs, but even more so when the Lakers are involved. They routinely rank near the top of the league in free-throw rate, and this season was no exception. The Lakers shot 23.2 free throws per game in the regular season, third-most behind the 23.3 taken by Denver and Memphis. The Wolves were 16th at 21.8. The Lakers score 16.1 percent of their points off free throws, the second highest in the league.

Part of that is because the Lakers play a physical brand of basketball and because their high-usage players are incredibly smart about using angles and leverage to create legitimate contact and get to the line. Part of it is grifting as well, with Dončić and Reaves particularly skilled at drawing whistles. Don’t hate the player, hate the game.

For the Wolves to hang in this series, they have to rise above the bickering they often do when they feel they have been wronged. Finch is very vocal during games. Edwards led the league in technical fouls during the regular season and was suspended once. Rudy Gobert and Naz Reid are constantly pleading their cases.

There are going to be missed calls in this series. The Lakers might even get the benefit of the doubt that other teams do not receive. But if the Timberwolves lean into the conspiracy theory, it will only derail them.

“I think there’s a lot of things that you got to do to stay focused right now,” Finch said earlier this week. “We can’t control that. As a team, we’ve done a better job down the stretch here of just getting on about the business of basketball, and that’s what it’s got to be.”

Edwards promised to be on his best behavior.

“I won’t get no techs,” he said. “I won’t say anything. I’m gonna be super quiet, 100 percent.”

That would come as a surprise. It is hard to envision the Timberwolves keeping their heads about them if the whistles start to go against them. Composure is such an important element in a seven-game series. Dončić certainly likes to complain with the best of them, and James will no doubt do his fair share of lobbying. But it seems far more likely that the Lakers are not thrown off by how the game is called than the Timberwolves.

They do not have to be church mice. Finch should initiate conversations with officials when he feels something has been missed. But they have to recognize that waging a war will do them no favors. Just lean on assistant coach Jeff Newton, who is in charge of challenges, and let the rest take care of itself.

(Photo: Harry How / Getty Images)

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