Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had a monster second half in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals, and he appears to be a player that bettors are going to want to target in this series in the prop market.
Not only did SGA score 31 points – although he took 27 shots to get those points – but he also dished out nine dimes to pace an OKC offense that ran away with Game 1 in the second half.
I’m looking to target the All-NBA guard in Game 2, but he’s not the only player to consider in the player prop market.
Timberwolves guard Donte DiVincenzo had a major role in Game 1, but his shooting struggles make him a risky bet against the league’s top defense.
Plus, I have another Thunder star that may be a little overvalued as a shooter entering Game 2. Here’s a full breakdown of each of the props to consider for Thursday’s contest.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Donte DiVincenzo UNDER 9.5 Points (-110)
This postseason, Donte DiVincenzo has shot extremely poorly for the Minnesota Timberwolves, hitting just 31.7 percent of his shots from the field and 25.0 percent of his attempts from 3.
In Game 1, DiVincenzo took 14 shots (including 12 3-pointers), but he finished with just three made field goals and nine points. It was the ninth time in 11 playoff games this season that the veteran guard finished with less than 10 points.
Even though he plays a big role for the Wolves, DiVincenzo is averaging just 8.1 points per game this postseason. Against a Thunder defense that has a bunch of elite guards and wing defenders, I expect DiVincenzo’s slump to continue.
Chet Holmgren UNDER 1.5 3-Pointers Made (-180)
Chet Holmgren was 1-for-1 from beyond the arc in Game 1, but he’s seen his 3-point volume taper off since the first round.
Over his last eight playoff games, Holmgren has just two with multiple made shots from beyond the arc. Over that stretch, he’s shooting 25.0 percent from 3 on just 3.5 attempts per game.
It’s hard to get behind Holmgren in this market since he’s taken three or fewer shots from deep in six of his last eight games, and he thrived in the paint in Game 1. I expect the Thunder’s big man to continue to cut down on his 3-point attempts if he’s able to get easy looks at the bucket.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OVER 6.5 Assists (-145)
Earlier today, I shared in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why Gilgeous-Alexander is a great bet in this market:
While SGA took a ton of shots in Game 1 and wasn’t exactly super efficient, I was really impressed with his playmaking against a Minnesota defense that was selling out to stop him.
Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 6.6 assists per game this postseason, putting up seven or more dimes in half of his games. However, I am intrigued by his potential assists, per NBA.com’s tracking data, as the star guard is averaging 15.6 potential assists per game.
Now, SGA’s teammates need to convert those for him to clear this prop, but the fact that he’s had that many assist-worthy plays is notable.
Teams have really tried to wall off the paint from the All-Star guard this season, but if he continues to trust his teammates, he could soar past this number for the sixth time in his last nine games.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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Find Peter Dewey’s NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.
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