Wednesday could be the final game of the Western Conference Finals, as the Oklahoma City Thunder hold a 3-1 series lead over the Minnesota Timberwolves and are set as 8.5-point favorites at home.
Through four games in this series, we’ve seen some high-scoring games and plenty of players step up on both sides, especially in Game 4 in Minnesota. The Thunder ended up winning Monday’s matchup by two points, but several Timberwolves players stepped up to keep the team in the game with Julius Randle (1-for-7 from the field) struggling.
In Game 5, I think Timberwolves star Anthony Edwards could be in line for a big showing, as he was limited to just 13 shots in Game 4. I can’t imagine the All-NBA guard going down without a fight, and he’s been an extremely impressive scorer throughout his playoff career.
Let’s break down three props to consider for Game 5 of this Western Conference Finals series.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Anthony Edwards OVER 26.5 Points (-120)
Earlier today, I shared in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why Edwards is due for a bounce-back scoring game in Game 5:
Edwards took just 13 shots in Game 4, but I expect that he’ll go down swinging in Game 5 – even if the Thunder attempt to get the ball out of his hands once again.
This postseason, Edwards has scored 27 or more points six times, including twice in this series (Games 2 and 3). After taking just 13 shots in Game 1, he responded with 26 shot attempts in Game 2 and a 12-for-17 showing in the blowout win for the Wolves in Game 3.
For his playoff career, Edwards is averaging 27.1 points on 20.2 shots per game. While the Thunder have done a good job of limiting his easy looks, I can’t imagine that the All-NBA guard continues to defer with the Wolves’ season on the line.
I’d bet on him being more aggressive from the start – he didn’t take a shot until well into the first quarter of Game 4 – on Wednesday night.
Nickeil Alexander-Walker OVER 1.5 3-Pointers Made (-135)
Timberwolves guard Nickeil Alexander-Walker has come up huge in the Western Conference Finals, hitting multiple shots from beyond the arc in every game.
So, I love betting on him to do it again in a must-win Game 5.
Alexander-Walker is one of the best defenders on this Minnesota team, so he’s going to have a very consistent role in Game 5. On top of that, he’s shooting an impressive 12-for-25 from 3 in this series (48.0 percent) and 37.3 percent from 3 in the playoffs.
After NAW attempted eight 3-pointers in Game 4, he’s worth a look on Wednesday night.
Jalen Williams OVER 1.5 3-Pointers Made (-130)
Another play from today’s Peter’s Points, Jalen Williams is undervalued as a shooter with how many open looks he’s gotten in this series:
The Western Conference Finals have been a huge bounce-back series for Jalen Williams, and he turned in his best performance of the playoffs in Game 4.
Williams finished with 34 points, and he knocked down multiple shots from beyond the arc for the third straight game.
The All-NBA forward was 6-for-9 from deep in Game 4, and he’s 11-for-22 overall in the series. Williams has also attempted at least five shots from deep in each of the last three games.
With the Wolves aiming to shut off Shai Gilgeous-Alexander at the rim, it has opened up a lot of open shots for Williams and the rest of the Thunder offense.
At such a low line (1.5 3s made), Williams is worth a look at home in Game 5.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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Find Peter Dewey’s NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.
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