The Oklahoma City Thunder dominated the NBA regular season with the highest point differential in league history and are the prohibitive favorites to win the franchise’s first title since 1979, when it was the Seattle SuperSonics.
A large reason for this superiority is their impressive depth.
While it helps limit minutes for their stars during the regular season and a taxing postseason schedule that involves playing every other night, the depth also allows head coach Mark Daigneault extreme lineup flexibility.
We saw that crystallized at the end of Game 4 against the Minnesota Timberwolves.
With just seconds left and trailing by two points, Minnesota was poised to miss a free throw purposefully with its only chance for an offensive rebound and putback.
Daigneault declined using 7-foot-1 starting forward Chet Holmgren, instead preferring to use shorter frontline players who weigh more and are less likely to allow an opponent to move them out of position.
The 23-year-old Holmgren is listed at just 208 pounds and has seen his rebounding numbers decline this series. He is averaging just 5.8 boards through the first four games and has not grabbed more than seven in a single game.
He has cashed Under 8.5 rebounds in all four games in the Western Conference finals, and oddsmakers are only adjusting the juice of his proposition bet.
I believe there still is value with the Under.
Betting on the NBA?
A playoff series often comes down to matchups. Holmgren is stretching Minnesota’s well-respected defense by lurking around the 3-point line and then cutting for dunks. He’s rarely in position for offensive rebounds, which is why he tallied only four offensive boards through the first three games.
In Game 4, he did grab four offensive rebounds, but that feels more like an outlier. Minnesota has solid frontcourt size and Holmgren largely has been kept in check.
I have a 44-37-1 ATS record in this Post sports section entering Tuesday, and my next play is Holmgren Under 8.5 rebounds in Game 5 (-110, BetMGM Sportsbook).
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Doug Kezirian is a New York Post contributor who has over two decades of experience in the betting space, including spending 11 years at ESPN as a host, columnist and betting analyst. Doug has over two decades of experience in the betting space, including spending 11 years at ESPN as a host, columnist and betting analyst. He’s also the rare personality who has documented success – 14th place in 2023 Circa Million and Las Vegas SuperContest ($37K), two top-10 finishes in 2022 William Hill College Football Challenge ($58K) and also grabbed headlines with a $297K win on the 2021 NFL Draft.
