The No. 1-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder escaped the second round, winning in commanding fashion in Game 7 against the Denver Nuggets to advance to the Western Conference Finals.
They’ll take on the No. 6-seeded Minnesota Timberwolves and Anthony Edwards, who are back in the Western Conference Finals for the second straight season. Last season, Minnesota was knocked out in five games by the Dallas Mavericks after going to seven games – against Denver – in the second round.
OKC is looking to avoid a similar fate, and oddsmakers have the Thunder heavily favored to win the title, this series and Game 1.
OKC is a 7.5-point favorite in Tuesday’s series opener, but the Wolves have been extremely impressive in the playoffs, going 8-2 straight up to eliminate both the Los Angeles Lakers and Golden State Warriors in five games.
Can Edwards and company spoil Game 1 in OKC for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Thunder?
Here’s a breakdown of the odds, players to bet in the prop market and my prediction for Tuesday’s contest.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Spread
Moneyline
Total
Timberwolves Injury Report
Thunder Injury Report
Minnesota Timberwolves Best NBA Prop Bet
Earlier today, I shared in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why I’m buying Julius Randle in Game 1:
Randle has been awesome this postseason, averaging 23.9 points per game while shooting 50.9 percent from the field and 34.5 percent from beyond the arc.
The Timberwolves forward has been the clear No. 2 option behind Anthony Edwards in the offense, and one could argue he’s been the Wolves’ best player at points in these playoffs.
Randle has scored 20 or more points in eight of his 10 playoff games, putting up 24 or more points in each of his final four games against the Warriors. While he only faced Minnesota once this season, Randle could be a matchup issue for the Thunder because of his physicality down low.
Will Chet Holmgren be able to hold up against him in the post? Will OKC go small against him? Randle can play bully ball in either scenario, and his usage has been fairly high in the playoffs.
The Timberwolves star is averaging 16.9 shots per game in the playoffs, attempting 16 or more in seven of his 10 games. He’s coming off 31 and 29 points in his final two games against Golden State, and I think he’s a little undervalued at this number in Game 1.
Oklahoma City Thunder Best NBA Prop Bet
Chet Holmgren has been great on the glass in the playoffs, averaging 9.7 boards per game overall.
He picked up 11 or more rebounds in five of his seven games against Denver in the second round, and I expect him to be a huge piece of OKC’s rotation in this series since the Wolves can play some pretty big lineups with Rudy Gobert, Randle and Naz Reid.
Holmgren is averaging 17.3 rebound chances per game in the playoffs, and I think this line is a massive value considering how important he was on the glass against Denver. Chet has cleared 8.5 boards in seven of 11 playoff games this season.
Another play from today’s Peter’s Points, I’m backing the Wolves to cover the spread in Game 1 as 7.5-point underdogs:
During the regular season, the Timberwolves and Thunder split their four matchups. Although Julius Randle did not play in three of those games. So, that could be a positive sign for the Wolves, who have gone 25-6 straight up (including playoffs) since Randle returned to the lineup from an injury.
Minnesota is one of the better teams in the NBA against the spread as a road underdog this season, going 11-6, and it’s worth noting that OKC – even though it is elite overall ATS – is just 7-6-1 against the spread with a rest disadvantage this season.
The Thunder also only covered in two of their seven games against Denver, the blowout wins in Game 2 and Game 7.
The key for Minnesota in this matchup will be limiting turnovers, as OKC is forcing over 18 turnovers a game in the playoffs. However, Minnesota is No. 2 in turnovers forced and has an elite defense that should be able to send a lot of different looks at SGA.
In the Thunder’s two wins over the Wolves in the regular season, they won by just seven and eight points, a sign that this Minnesota team can hang, despite being set as a massive underdog in the series odds.
I’m worried about Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren, who both shot pretty poorly in the second round, as the No. 2 options in this OKC offense. While the Wolves may not end up pulling off an upset, I do think they keep Game 1 close on Tuesday night.
Pick: Timberwolves +7.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Find Peter Dewey’s NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.
Are you new to DraftKings? Sign up today and place a $5 bet to earn a guaranteed $200 in bonus bets. Win or lose, DraftKings will issue six $25 bonus bets instantly.
