Can the Minnesota Timberwolves keep their season alive in Game 5 of the Western Conference Finals?
The Wolves fought hard in Game 4, but they ultimately came up short with a two-point loss to the top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder.
The win gave Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (40 points, nine rebounds, 10 assists in Game 4) and the Thunder a 3-1 series lead, something only 13 teams in NBA history have been able to come back from.
Oddsmakers are expecting the Thunder to wrap up this series at home in Game 5, as they’ve set them as 8.5-point favorites. While OKC has been great against the spread at home all season long, it is just 6-9 against the spread overall in the playoffs.
So, the Wolves may have a chance to keep this game close and potentially pull off the upset to see another day in the playoffs.
Let’s break down this matchup with the latest odds, players to watch in the prop market, and my prediction for Game 5.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Spread
Moneyline
Total
Timberwolves Injury Report
Thunder Injury Report
Minnesota Timberwolves Best NBA Prop Bet
Earlier today, I shared in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why Edwards is due for a bounce-back scoring game in Game 5:
Edwards took just 13 shots in Game 4, but I expect that he’ll go down swinging in Game 5 – even if the Thunder attempt to get the ball out of his hands once again.
This postseason, Edwards has scored 27 or more points six times, including twice in this series (Games 2 and 3). After taking just 13 shots in Game 1, he responded with 26 shot attempts in Game 2 and a 12-for-17 showing in the blowout win for the Wolves in Game 3.
For his playoff career, Edwards is averaging 27.1 points on 20.2 shots per game. While the Thunder have done a good job of limiting his easy looks, I can’t imagine that the All-NBA guard continues to defer with the Wolves’ season on the line.
I’d bet on him being more aggressive from the start – he didn’t take a shot until well into the first quarter of Game 4 – on Wednesday night.
Oklahoma City Thunder Best NBA Prop Bet
There is also a Thunder player that I’m targeting in today’s NBA Best Bets column, as Chet Holmgren has really stepped up as a scorer in this series and is coming off a huge Game 4:
It’s been an up-and-down postseason for Chet Holmgren scoring the ball, but he’s put up 15 or more points in three of his four games in this series, including a 21-point showing in Game 4.
Holmgren’s usage has fluctuated – he took just nine shots in Game 1 and seven in Game 3 – but he’s been more involved with Mark Daigneault opting to play more minutes with only one of Holmgren or Isaiah Hartenstein on the floor.
In the two games in this series where Holmgren attempted double-digit shots, he finished with 22 and 21 points. He’s also shot the 3-ball better in this series, knocking down 33.3 percent of his attempts.
He’s worth a look at this number, especially since these teams have played some high-scoring games in this series.
After combining for just 202 points in Game 1 of this series, the Thunder and Timberwolves have played some high-scoring affairs:
So, while I’m not sold on a side in Game 5, I do think bettors can comfortably take the OVER in this matchup.
Entering this series, these were two of the top defensive teams in the playoffs, but the Timberwolves have dropped to fourth in that ranking after allowing some high-scoring games – including Game 4’s loss.
Meanwhile, they’ve both jumped into the top five in offensive rating amongst all teams that participated in the playoffs, and the Wolves are all the way up at No. 4 in effective field goal percentage.
The Thunder (No. 2 in pace this postseason) forced a ton of turnovers in Game 4, and they’ve pushed the tempo all postseason long, leading to some higher-scoring games. This total hasn’t really moved much from Game 4, despite the fact that these teams both had elite offensive showings.
OKC’s defense has been the No. 1 unit in the NBA all season, but they’re also 53-43-2 to the OVER (including playoffs).
Pick: OVER 220.5 (-112 at DraftKings)
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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Find Peter Dewey’s NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.
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