The Golden State Warriors’ season is hanging in the balance on Monday, as they are looking to avoid a 3-1 series deficit in the Western Conference semifinals against the Minnesota Timberwolves.
Golden State won Game 1, and was up in the fourth quarter of Game 3, but it blew the lead (Minnesota outscored the Warriors 33-24 in the fourth in Game 3) to fall down 2-1 in the series.
Now, with Steph Curry (hamstring) still out, the Warriors are in a tough spot to keep this series going beyond five games. Curry’s best chance of returning would be in Game 6, which means Golden State needs to win at least one of the next two games to give him a shot to play.
Oddsmakers aren’t buying the Warriors at home in Game 4, setting the Timberwolves as 5.5-point favorites.
Julius Randle and Anthony Edwards had massive games in Game 3, and they ended up contributing to Draymond Green fouling out with several minutes to play in that matchup.
Despite 63 combined points from Jonathan Kuminga and Jimmy Butler, Golden State finished with less than 100 points for the third straight game in Game 3.
Will that change on Monday?
Here’s a breakdown of the odds, players to watch in the prop market and my prediction for this matchup.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Moneyline
Total
Timberwolves Injury Report
Warriors Injury Report
Minnesota Timberwolves Best NBA Prop Bet
Earlier today, I shared in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why Julius Randle is one of my favorite prop targets on Monday:
The playoff demons are gone for Julius Randle, as he’s averaging 22.4 points, 5.8 rebounds and 6.4 assists per game this postseason while shooting 47.7 percent from the field and 31.7 percent from 3.
Randle has been an issue for a Golden State team that lacks rim protection, as he’s scored 24 points in back-to-back games, attempting 17 and 23 shots in those matchups.
The usage has been pretty steady for Randle as the No. 2 option behind Anthony Edwards, as he’s averaging 16.3 shots per game.
This number is too low for the Wolves star, as he’s scored at least 20 points in six of his eight games this postseason.
Golden State Warriors Best NBA Prop Bet
Butler has fallen short of this prop line in two of his three games in this series, but he went off in Game 3, scoring 33 points on 12-of-26 shooting from the field.
Butler also took nine free throws in the loss – a series-high for him – which really raises his floor in this market. Golden State doesn’t have anyone else – outside of Jonathan Kuminga – that it can rely on to create shots, and Kuminga has been in and out of the rotation in the playoffs as it is.
I’d be surprised if Butler doesn’t take on a major scoring workload again in Game 4, especially since he has multiple other games with 27 or more points in these playoffs.
So far in this series, the Warriors have scored 99, 93 and 97 points, struggling mightily with Steph Curry off of the floor.
Golden State has an offensive rating of 101.4 over that stretch, which is tied with the New York Knicks for the worst in the second round. Out of all of the teams in the playoffs, only the Memphis Grizzlies had a lower offensive rating than that in their games.
So, Golden State has its work cut out for it in Game 4 – even at home.
Not only are the Timberwolves No. 3 in defensive rating this postseason, but they have kept Brandin Podziemski and some other Warriors supporting members in check in this series.
Podz is just 6-for-26 from the field in this matchup, and only Jimmy Butler, Buddy Hield and Jonathan Kuminga made a real offensive impact in Game 3. In fact, Kuminga scored 30 points and Butler had 33 and yet Golden State still only scored 97 as a team.
I’m not sold on Kuminga having that strong of a performance in Game 4, so I lean with the Warriors to finish short of this team total for the second time in four games.
Pick: Warriors Team Total UNDER 96.5 Points (-102 at DraftKings)
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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Find Peter Dewey’s NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.
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