Breaking their NBA play-in tournament curse, the Warriors used an extra game as a gift to get back into the playoffs, earning a trip to Houston to play the Rockets. These two teams have a long history in the playoffs, too. The coach is new, as is the roster, but the bad blood remains.
The Warriors won the season series 3-2, and their core has much more postseason experience. They’ll be leaning on that to take down the No. 2-seeded Rockets, starting Sunday night. Will that be enough?
Here are four keys to the Warriors getting four wins in the first round against the Rockets.
Protect The Ball
Jimmy Butler blew a kiss and thanked the basket nearest the Warriors’ bench at Chase Center in Tuesday’s win against the Memphis Grizzlies after making back-to-back free throws. Butler hates missing free throws and had gone 1 of 2 at the line his previous four trips. It was obvious how annoyed Butler was with missing a total of six shots at the free-throw line, but it’s even more clear what part of the game frustrates him most.
Turnovers. Nothing compares for the 14-year veteran.
“I hate turning the ball over,” Butler says. “Free throws; but turnovers really irk me.”
A lack of turnovers had to make Butler happy after surviving the Grizzlies. The Warriors committed half as many turnovers as the Grizzlies – 20 to 10 – and scored 27 points off turnovers, compared to giving up 12. Nearly every player, along with coach Steve Kerr, said turnovers will be the main factor in the Warriors’ either moving on to the second round, or having to answer a long list of questions from a first-round exit.
They turned the ball over 20 times in their most recent game with the Rockets, a 106-96 loss, and that turned into 18 points for Houston. The Rockets in that game had 14 more fastbreak points than them, 16 more points in the paint and two more second-chance points in a win where they shot 33.3 percent from 3-point range. The equation is simple: Don’t give the Rockets more chances.
Their half-court offense can keep them out of games, but they make up for it by hitting the offensive glass and sprinting past you. The Warriors, in their three wins against the Rockets, averaged 11.7 turnovers and 14 points conceded off them. But in their two losses, they averaged 21 turnovers and 24 points conceded off them.
Ball security will either make or break the Warriors against the Rockets.
Freeing Steph
Like a phantom haunting him all over the court, nobody made Steph Curry look more human this season than Amen Thompson. The 22-year-old made his Defensive Player of the Year case in the final regular-season game between the Warriors and the Rockets. Thompson had three steals and two blocks, badgering Curry all game.
Here’s what an off-night it was for Curry: His four turnovers were more than the three points he scored. Curry was 1 of 10 overall and 1 of 8 on threes, making a heave at the end of the first half. Thompson was the main defender guarding Curry’s nine missed shots just once. A combination of Dillon Brooks and Fred VanVleet made up for the rest.
But it was all the off-ball trouble that Thompson caused. Curry played three games against the Rockets this year and averaged 16.3 points on 36.4 percent shooting (16 of 44) and 30 percent on threes (9 of 30), all being incredibly low numbers for him. The Rockets will force the referees to adjust to them, particularly with the physicality of guarding Curry.
He has scored just five points with Thompson as his primary defender this season, going 2 of 8 overall and 1 of 6 from deep. Curry’s 0 of 5 with Brooks as his main defender, all being 3-pointers, but 4 of 8 with VanVleet on him. Can Curry exploit Jalen Green or Alperen Sengun in the pick-and-roll? Can Butler’s early scoring recently allow Curry to cook when it counts most?
In the simplest of terms, this series can be decided on Kerr finding ways to free up his 37-year-old star. Curry is the king of adjusting throughout a series, and the opposing coach called him out for crying about fouls last game. Every “Steph Stopper” has eventually failed. The mental and physical toll of a renewed rivalry should be a treat.
Big vs. Small
Houston houses a starting backcourt of a 6-foot VanVleet and a 6-foot-4 Green, who plays even smaller. Then, there’s just a long line of players who are big, long and want to impose their size over you.
An Ime Udoka-led team can throw Tari Eason and Jabari Smith Jr. at you off the bench, and they’re sure to go to the two-big lineup of Sengun and Steven Adams. Those two played 162 minutes together this season and had a 29.9 net rating with a 122 offensive rating and 92 defensive rating. As Sengun had a 19-point, 14-rebound double-double last game against the Warriors, including seven offensive rebounds, Adams was a plus-7 with eight rebounds in 17 minutes.
Curry went 3 of 10 – 1 of 7 from three – when Sengun guarded him this season. Adams defended him for 11 seconds and forced a turnover. Sengun offensively has not been good in the post with Green on him. In the Warriors’ three wins over the Rockets this season, Sengun was a minus-36. That two-big lineup cannot work when Curry’s on the floor.
The biggest flare-up less than two weeks ago was with Draymond Green and Sengun. Watch the 22-year-old try to make a statement on the 35-year-old. And watch how the four-time champion responds. Against the Grizzlies, Green kept so many possessions alive, and he knocked numerous balls out from the scrum. The Warriors need him to contain Sengun on the offensive glass and remain out of foul trouble.
Will Kerr show his faith in Kevon Looney? How much of a factor can Quinten Post be as a stretch-five to pull the Rockets’ big men away from the rim?
Both Gary Payton II and Moses Moody can have major roles in small-ball lineups. Moody should have open shots the Warriors need him to knock down, and Payton was the Warriors’ best player against the Rockets last game with 16 points, five rebounds, two assists and three steals. Then there’s the player who can match the Rockets’ youth, size and athleticism.
Is This The Kuminga Series?
His skill set would suggest yes. So would his numbers against Houston this season. But Jonathan Kuminga remains the biggest question mark for the Warriors’ playoff run, as well as the offseason.
Kerr essentially declined to answer a pregame question about Kuminga on Tuesday before the Warriors’ play-in tournament game, saying that conversations to maintain a player’s mental strength can’t be necessary at this stage of the season. But Kerr and the Warriors will have to hope Kuminga has stayed ready, mentally and physically, for a series he very well could be needed in.
“He’ll contribute,” Green said later that night. “He’s great. He’s getting his work in. That’s all you can do in that situation is get your work in.
“And he’ll be meaningful for us in that series. I have zero doubt about that. I think the challenge for him is to stay mentally engaged, as it is for anyone in that situation. But I have zero doubt in my mind that he’s going to help us in this series. He will, 1,000 percent.”
Kuminga played in four of the Warriors’ five games against the Rockets this season, missing their 105-98 win on Feb. 13 while still dealing with a badly sprained right ankle. The four games (two starts) he did play were a sample of why it could be hard for Kerr to completely ignore him. Kuminga averaged 21.3 points and 6.8 rebounds in 28.8 minutes per game against the Rockets.
In their first meeting, Kuminga led the Warriors to an overtime win as a plus-18 off the bench with 23 points and six rebounds, scoring six of their eight points in OT. He was even better the next time the two teams played each other. The Warriors’ former top draft pick dropped a then-career-high 33 points on 13-of-23 shooting, made three of his six 3-point attempts and skied for seven rebounds. On a night the Warriors didn’t have Curry or Green, Kuminga showed all the promise the franchise has invested in.
The Warriors have lost their last two games against the Rockets that Kuminga has played, but not because of him. He had 20 points and another seven rebounds in his third game against them, and then played just 19 minutes off the bench in the Warriors’ loss to the Rockets earlier this month, despite being a team-high plus-9 with nine points and seven rebounds. Everything shows the Rockets were Kuminga’s best matchup, by far, and he’s Golden State’s only player who is as athletic and long as Houston’s young and hungry roster.
It’ll be extremely telling where Kuminga’s present and future as a Warrior stand in the case he’s reduced to his warmups on the sidelines for however long the first round goes.
