What’s better than a Game 7 to close out the first round of the NBA playoffs?
The Golden State Warriors and Houston Rockets have played a hard-fought series, with Houston forcing a Game 7 by winning Games 5 and 6 against the veteran Warriors. Golden State is looking to avoid a 3-1 collapse, and only 13 teams in NBA history have ever come back from that deficit.
Yet, the Rockets are favored at home in Game 7 to complete the feat. Houston dominated Game 5 at home before pulling out a massive win in Game 6 in Golden State, holding Jimmy Butler in check for much of that game.
The Warriors – led by Butler and Steph Curry – have a ton of playoff experience, but can they go into a hostile environment and pull off an upset win to advance to the second round?
The winner of this matchup will play the Minnesota Timberwolves, with that series starting on Tuesday night. Here’s a quick look at the odds, players to watch in the prop market and my prediction for Game 7.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Moneyline
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Warriors Injury Report
Rockets Injury Report
Golden State Warriors Best NBA Prop Bet
Earlier today, I shared in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why Steph Curry is an elite bet in Game 7:
Curry’s 29 points in Game 6 weren’t enough to get the Warriors the win, and now they have their backs against the wall in Game 7 on the road.
However, Curry has constantly risen to the occasion in Game 7s in his career, averaging 32.6 points, 7.0 assists and 6.4 rebounds in five appearances. The only Game 7 where he finished with fewer than 27 points came in the 2016 NBA Finals against the Cleveland Cavaliers – which ended in a Golden State loss.
Curry is going to take a ton of shots and play a ton of minutes in this game, as Golden State doesn’t really have any answers on offense outside of him and Jimmy Butler in this series. Curry is averaging 24.3 points on 17.5 shots per game in this series, but he’s put up 19 or more shots in half of the games.
Houston Rockets Best NBA Prop Bet
In this series, Alperen Sengun has dominated on the glass for Houston, picking up at least nine rebounds in every game, including three games with 11 or more boards.
The All-Star big man should play pretty heavy minutes in Game 7, and he picked up 14 boards in a must-win game in Game 6. While Sengun’s rebounding ceiling has been limited by the Rockets playing two-big lineups with Steven Adams, Sengun has been a double-digit board machine against Golden State this season.
He’s worth a shot in this market, especially since Game 7s are usually low scoring (hitting the UNDER in 39 of 64 since 2005) and may feature more defensive basketball with a lot of missed shots.
In today’s Peter’s Points – my NBA Best Bets column – I shared why I can’t quit betting the Warriors in this Game 7:
I’ll go down with the ship, as I can’t see Golden State losing three straight games to become just the 14th team in NBA history to blow a 3-1 series lead in the playoffs.
The Warriors have admittedly struggled over the last two games, but they still have the experience and star power to win this game on the road. Golden State won Game 1 in a hostile environment in Houston, and the Warriors have players that have been in this situation before in Jimmy Butler, Draymond Green and Steph Curry.
The Rockets have won on the strength of their defense – and their two-big lineups – but I am worried about them in a potential slog of a game on Sunday. If the Rockets have to get baskets in the half court on a consistent basis, we’ve seen that become a problem area for them in this series.
Plus, only 13 teams in NBA history have erased a 3-1 series deficit. I’m not totally sold that this young Houston team is equipped to join this group, especially if Jalen Green continues to struggle on offense.
I’ll take the Warriors to cover – and potentially win – this Game 7.
Pick: Warriors +2.5 (-112 at DraftKings)
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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Find Peter Dewey’s NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.
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