You know those safe closers you drafted? The ones you paid a premium for because you wouldn’t have to worry about them this season while everyone else had a knock-down, drag-out fight for the dregs of the RP position on waivers every week? Yeah, that plan might’ve gotten flipped on its head over the past week.
That’s an exaggeration, of course. Josh Hader has been fine, if you have him, and Mason Miller remains a dominant force; Ryan Helsley’s job is safe, and Raisel Iglesias just keeps on trucking. But a bunch of the high-end options look pretty scary these days.
Like Devin Williams and Emmanuel Clase, who were both shifted out of the closer’s role at least temporarily this weekend as they try to find the answer to some early-season struggles. In both instances, the Yankees and Guardians managers were clear to say their demotions were likely to be temporary, but if you invested an early pick into either, losing them as a saves source for even a week could be tough to overcome, especially since your only recourse is to stash them away on your bench – I shouldn’t have to say this, but no, you are definitely not dropping Emmanuel Clase or Devin Williams.
But you probably should be trying to add Cade Smith and Luke Weaver to replace them this week. Both are elite relievers in their own right, and both would probably be top-10 options for Fantasy if they were the closer the rest of the way for their respective teams. And, while we expect these to be short-term changes, there’s at least a chance both stick in the role and become huge contributors for Fantasy the rest of the way, either because they make themselves irreplaceable or the guy they are replacing just never gets right. At the very least, both Weaver and Smith look like must-start relievers for the next week, and possibly longer.
We’ve also got Edwin Diaz dealing with a hip injury, though the concern over that is minimal enough that he did pitch Saturday. However, he did skip a save situation Sunday, with Ryne Stanek blowing the game for the Mets, so that could be an issue that lingers and makes Diaz a risky start this week.
Things are worse for Ryan Walker, who might just be in a time share now – he worked the ninth inning in a tied game Saturday but continued to look vulnerable, giving up a couple of hits before getting out of the inning and ending up with a win. Sunday, it was Camilo Doval‘s turn to work the ninth in a tie game and get the win. They remain tied for the team lead with five saves, and while Walker hasn’t totally lost the job, it also isn’t totally his either. I wouldn’t be looking to drop Walker, but I do think Doval is someone you want to be adding in most Roto leagues.
And Ryan Pressly and Trevor Megill are both on notice, too. Both are dealing with knee issues, though Pressly’s is a bigger concern right now – he’s been throwing off to the side, but he hasn’t pitched in a game since last week. Porter Hodge could continue to see some save chances as long as Pressly is out, while Megill blew a save Saturday with a walk-off homer, and has at least a couple of viable options behind him if he continues to struggle – Abner Uribe would probably be next in line, though recently promoted rookie Craig Yoho has some interesting skills that could make him worth a look in deeper leagues, too.
And then there are a couple of bullpen situations that might have already flipped. For the Tigers, Will Vest has the last three saves ahead of Tommy Kahnle, who looked like he was running away with the job early on. That’s ambiguous enough that I wouldn’t be surprised to see it flip back to Kahnle, but Vest seems to be at the top of the hierarchy for now. And in Pittsburgh, David Bednar might have already gotten his closer job back, as he worked the ninth for the save Friday, while Dennis Santana shifted down to the eighth-inning role. I always assumed the Pirates wanted to get Bednar back into that role, and they really didn’t take long to do it.
If you’re looking for relievers to add this weekend, I would probably rank them in this priority:
- David Bednar, Pirates
- Cade Smith, Guardians
- Luke Weaver, Yankees
- Camilo Doval, Giants
- Will Vest, Tigers
- Porter Hodge, Cubs
- Abner Uribe, Brewers
But there are plenty of options, both in the short- and long-term to consider, and that could allow you to be strategic. If you need saves right now, Smith and Weaver could be high priorities, because we know they’re good and seemingly have a short-term limit on how long they’ll have the job; if you are in a more speculative position, Uribe or Hodge might not give you a ton of saves right now, but both could end up with real long-term value if some stuff breaks their way.
Here’s who else we’re looking to add on waivers ahead of Week 5:
Week 5 Waiver Targets
Catchers
Agustin Ramirez, C, Marlins (48%) – It’s hard for a player’s first five games to go any better than Ramirez’s have. After homering in his first trip to the plate Sunday, he is 8 for his first 15 at-bats with two homers, four doubles, a steal, and just one strikeout. Ramirez played his way into the top-50 prospect discussion by hitting 25 homers and stealing 22 bases last season in the minors, and he’s going to be a stalwart of the Marlins lineup basically everyday if he keeps this up. He’s better in Roto than points, but at this point, Ramirez needs to be rostered in all leagues with this hot start.
Deep-league target: Edgar Quero, White Sox (16%) – Quero is kind of getting lost in the shuffle behind Ramirez, but he wasn’t viewed as a significantly worse prospect than Ramirez coming into the season – FanGraphs had him as the No. 59 player on their big board coming into the season, while Ramirez was 40th – and he’s more than held his own in his first taste of the majors. Quero is hitting .345/.472/.414 in his first11 games, with a couple of appearances already at DH, a sign the White Sox want to keep him in the lineup. His skillset isn’t quite as Fantasy-friendly as Ramirez’s, but with how bad catcher remains outside of a handful of options, any young guy with upside should be rostered in two-catcher leagues. And Quero will cost a lot less than Ramirez!
First Base
Pavin Smith, Diamondbacks (53%) – The Diamondbacks seem perfectly content to use Smith as a pure platoon bat, but you have to wonder if he might be able to change their perspective if he keeps crushing everything. He took a huge step forward last season, putting up a .395 expected wOBA to go along with his .377 actual mark, and now he’s improved on both in the early going. Sure, that’s inflated by the lack of exposure to tough left-handed pitchers, which also limits his appeal in points leagues especially. But with the way he’s hitting – in that lineup, no less – Smith is useful in any format, especially if the upcoming schedule is fairly righty-heavy.
Deep-league target: Spencer Horwitz, Pirates (10%) – Horwitz began his rehab assignment Sunday as he continues to work his way back from wrist surgery prior to the season. He’ll likely stay on that rehab assignment for at least another week, but he’s obviously getting close, and should be a big part of the Pirates lineup when healthy. I’m not sure Horwitz can really hit lefties, but he showed a good approach at the plate last season and could be a useful option in deeper leagues when healthy.
Second base
Jorge Polanco, Mariners (56%) – Maybe it takes a year to get used to playing in Seattle? Or maybe, you know, playing major-league baseball when you aren’t healthy is really hard. Polanco played through a variety of lower-body injuries last season and was clearly never right, as evidenced by his career-worst quality of contact metrics and strikeout rate. He’s turned both around so far this season, sporting a 12.9% strikeout rate and .489 expected wOBA on contact, both of which would be the best marks of his career. I don’t expect he’ll keep all of that up, but it’s worth remembering that Polanco had pretty consistently been an above-average bat before last season, and he might just be back to being one.
Deep-league target: Jeff McNeil, Mets (21%) – McNeil’s big second half in 2024 might have just been a fluke, but the reason I was interested in him coming into the season is because it was accompanied by an increase in bat speed – in the first half, his average swing speed was 68.3 mph, but that jumped uip to 69.8 mph after the break. It’s only been two games, but he has a hit in both and his swing speed is up yet again. The sample size is too small to draw any conclusions from, but it’s what we wanted to see from a guy who might still have something left in the tank.
Third base
Noelvi Marte, Reds (55%) – I’m pretty skeptical about Marte’s recent hot streak, but I’m also trying to be as open-minded as I can be, given his prospect pedigree. He is 14 for 30 with three homers, 14 RBI, and three steals over the past seven games, with a totally manageable 15.6% strikeout rate in that stretch. The underlying plate discipline metrics still aren’t great, but he is chasing out of the strike zone less often while swinging at more pitches in the strike zone than last season, which is what you want to see. Let’s see if it’s real.
Deep-league target: Eric Wagaman, Marlins (15%) – There’s very little in Wagaman’s history to suggest he’s likely to be a good major-league hitter. Wagaman has just a .726 OPS in his minor-league career, and while he has better numbers in the high minors, he also has been very old for the level at basically every step. But sure, maybe he’s a late-bloomer – I don’t exactly buy that, but he’s been impressive enough in the early going that I’ll remain open-minded as long as he remains cheap to acquire. Wagaman’s .319 xBA and .568 xSLG suggest he hasn’t exactly been lucky to hit .256/.307/.439 so far, so there could be some room to grow here.
Shortstop
Josh H. Smith, Rangers (51%) – I don’t really think there’s much to be excited about with Smith, but that’s kind of the problem at shortstop – there just isn’t much to be excited about with anyone who is relatively widely available. Smith has an everyday job with Corey Seager on the IL and should put up useful production – a batting average in the .260 range, a decent number of runs, and hopefully a few steals and a few homers. Again, it’s not exciting, but as a fill-in, he can be fine.
Deep-league targets: Kyle Farmer, Rockies (5%) – Farmer is even less exciting, but he does at least get to call Coors Field home for half his games. Yeah, the deep-league options at SS are rough.
Outfield
Austin Hays, Reds (62%) – Hays’ roster rate has continued to climb, but it still isn’t high enough, given how absolutely scorching hot he’s been since debuting in mid-April. He is now up to five homers in his first 12 games, while hitting .388/.444/.755 with a manageable 22% strikeout rate. Hays struggled last season while dealing with inconsistent playing time and then an infection, but he had been a solidly above average hitter for three straight years before that and now is in arguably the best hitting park in baseball. I think he might just be a must-start outfielder moving forward.
Jordan Beck, Rockies (28%) – I try to be fairly open-minded with players on the Rockies, just because of how much Coors Field inflates offensive production. Beck has put up pretty decent minor-league numbers over the years, but hasn’t managed to make it work at the MLB level until basically this week, when he returned from Triple-A with five homers in a three-game span. He’ll probably keep striking out too often to take full advantage of the opportunity to be a full-time player in Coors Field, but after this kind of outburst, we’ll give him another look.
Daulton Varsho, Blue Jays (22%) – At this point in his career, I think we know who Varsho is: A decent power/speed threat who you’re hoping won’t kill you with his batting average. You need to decide for yourself whether you can handle what will likely be an average in the .210-.225 range, but if you can, a pro-rated pace of 20 or so homers and 15 steals can certainly be helpful.
Jesus Sanchez Marlins (15%) – Sanchez hasn’t done much since coming off the IL, but there’s still an opportunity for him to be pretty useful for Fantasy. There’s a ceiling here because he likely won’t start against many lefties, but that should help keep his average in the manageable range, and he did have 18 homers and 16 steals last season. In a daily lineups league especially, Sanchez can be a solid starter.
Andy Pages, Dodgers (13%) – Pages is starting to turn things around. He opened the season with 11 straight games without a homer, but he’s hitting .341 since, with his fifth homer in his past 13 games coming Sunday. Pages flashed some upside last season after getting the call, and he’s tapping into some lately. Even batting in the bottom-third of that Dodgers lineup isn’t a bad place to be if Pages keeps hitting like this.
Starting pitcher
Reese Olson, Tigers (78%) – When Olson locks in, it’s really easy to see how useful he can be for Fantasy. It comes down to getting into position to deploy his two excellent secondaries, while limiting the damage done against his fastballs along the way. He’s changed his approach this season to prioritize his sinker over his four-seamer, and while that sinker isn’t a great pitch – .422 xwOBA this season – the damage it gives up tends to be on the ground, which limits the downside. And when he gets to two-strike counts consistently, his changeup and slider give him a legit put-away pitch for hitters of both handedness, as we saw in his seven-strikeout effort against the Padres this week. Let’s see if he can keep rolling.
Colin Rea, Cubs (65%) – I generally don’t like to do the, “Well, I don’t think this pitcher is actually good, but he is getting good results right now so you might as well play the hot hand” thing. Sometimes, it works, but sometimes you leave that guy in your lineup too long and end up with six earned runs and 12 baserunners in five innings from Mitchell Parker, like we got this weekend. So I’m hesitant to recommend Rea here. But he does have a pretty favorable upcoming schedule, with starts against the Pirates, Giants, Marlins, and White Sox scheduled over the next four, so if you want a steamer, he at least has an opportunity to be useful.
Tony Gonsolin, Dodgers (28%) – And now we’re at the “I’d rather stash for upside than use a mediocre pitcher in my lineup” portion of the show. Gonsolin is working his way back from Tommy John surgery as well as a spring back injury, and it looks like his debut is imminent – it was likely to come some time this week, but with Tyler Glasnow leaving Sunday’s start with shoulder discomfort, Gonsolin has a clear path back to the rotation. He has been sitting in the same velocity range as he was during his very good 2022 season on his rehab assignment, and could be very useful for Fantasy if he pitches at that level again.
Ryan Weathers, Marlins (24%) – Well, here’s some good news: Weathers’ velocity was right where we wanted it to be in his rehab debut Sunday at Single-A. Coming back from a flexor strain, Weathers hit 99.1 mph and struck out six in three innings on just 35 pitches in his first start of the season. That’s a higher max velocity than he’s ever had in the majors, and was what we saw that made him such a popular breakout pick this spring. It might also, of course, be what led to the injury in the first place, sure, but here’s the thing: You don’t have to invest a draft pick in him now to find out if the velocity bump can sustain and take him to another level. Add Weathers now before there’s more competition for him as his return from the IL nears.
Eury Perez, Marlins (41%) – Speaking of getting ahead of the rush, Perez is probably still at least another month away from returning to the majors himself. He started a minor-league rehab assignment Saturday with two strikeouts in a scoreless inning of work, his first appearance in a game since having Tommy John surgery last April. He averaged 97.2 mph with his four-seamer and worked his entire arsenal in over 19 pitches. He’ll probably take the full month to rehab, and might just get optioned back to the minors afterwards to keep working his way back. But the good news is, Perez is healthy, and he looked like himself, more or less, in his first game back. And he still has “best pitcher in baseball” upside when healthy.
Lucas Giolito, Red Sox (36%) – I’m pretty skeptical about Giolito making much of an impact here – he really hasn’t been Fantasy relevant since 2021 at this point. But I’m open to the possibility and want to see how his first start off the IL goes this week. I wouldn’t start him for it, but I don’t mind adding him ahead of time just in case there’s something still here.
