All 30 NBA teams have Saturday off and will play their regular season finales on Sunday. Here are a few things worth keeping an eye on during the season’s final weekend:
Playoff berths and seeding
The Eastern Conference postseason seeding has already been set, as we outlined on Friday night. However, the Western Conference playoff picture remains very much in flux.
The Thunder wrapped up the No. 1 seed weeks ago and the Rockets and Lakers have since clinched the second and third seeds, respectively. But at least two teams remain in play for each of the other seven spots in the West, with an incredible five clubs still in the mix for the No. 7 seed.
Here are the current standings from Nos. 4 through 10:
- Denver Nuggets (49-32)
- Los Angeles Clippers (49-32)
- Golden State Warriors (48-33)
- Minnesota Timberwolves (48-33)
- Memphis Grizzlies (47-34)
- Sacramento Kings (39-42)
- Dallas Mavericks (39-42)
And here are the relevant Sunday matchups involving those teams:
- Denver Nuggets at Houston Rockets
- Los Angeles Clippers at Golden State Warriors
- Utah Jazz at Minnesota Timberwolves
- Dallas Mavericks at Memphis Grizzlies
- Phoenix Suns at Sacramento Kings
There are too many possible scenarios to list them all here, but the NBA has published a handy chart (on Twitter) explaining all of the various outcomes. In short, the Nuggets, Clippers, Warriors, and Timberwolves are vying for the final three guaranteed playoff spots and each need a win to clinch their spot in the top six of the West.
The Nuggets would also clinch a playoff spot if the Warriors or Timberwolves lose, while the Clippers can secure their spot if the Nuggets or Timberwolves lose and the Warriors can sew up a playoff berth with a Timberwolves loss. Minnesota must beat Utah in order to finish in the top six. If the Wolves and Nuggets both win, they’ll finish in the top six along with the winner of the Clippers/Warriors game.
The Grizzlies are locked into a play-in spot and will face whichever one of those four teams fails to clinch a playoff berth on Sunday. They still have a chance to host that 7 vs. 8 play-in game if they beat Dallas and Utah upsets Minnesota.
The only outstanding question for the Kings and Mavericks is which team will host their play-in game — Sacramento can lock up home court advantage with a victory over the Suns.
Traded draft picks and lottery odds
While a win on Sunday would guarantee the Kings a home play-in game, it would reduce the odds that they’ll hang onto their top-12 protected first-round pick, which they owe to the Hawks. In order to hang onto that pick, Sacramento must miss the playoffs and then either move into the top four in the draft lottery or pick 11th or 12th, ahead of multiple play-in teams.
That second scenario technically remains in play. For example, let’s say the Kings lose on Sunday and finish the season with a 39-43 record. And let’s say the Mavericks and Hawks each win on Sunday and finish 40-42, while the Bulls win too to end up at 39-43. Finally, let’s say the Heat claim one of the final playoff spots in the East via the play-in tournament.
In that scenario, there would be two lottery teams (either the Magic or Hawks and one Western team) with better records than the Kings, who would be in a coin flip with the Bulls for the No. 11 spot in the draft lottery. That would give the Kings a strong chance of hanging onto their protected first-rounder, but a lot would have to fall into place for that to happen, starting with a loss on Sunday.
There are several more traded first-round picks that have a wide range of outcomes depending on where teams finish in the standings and how the play-in tournament plays out. For example, the Grizzlies owe the Wizards their lottery-protected first-round pick. If Memphis wins its first play-in game, that pick figures to land at 17 or 18. On the other hand, if the Grizzlies lose consecutive play-in games, they’d keep the pick and Washington would instead get a pair of second-rounders.
Another example: the Timberwolves owe their first-round pick to the Jazz, with no protections. A win on Sunday for Minnesota would mean that pick lands in the late teens or early 20s. A loss, followed by a pair of losses in the play-in tournament, would make it a lottery pick.
Speaking of the lottery, there’s still some positioning to be finalized there too, starting with whether the Wizards and Jazz, who are tied at 17-64, will finish atop the lottery standings. If both teams win (or if they both lose) on Sunday, a coin flip will decide their order. The team that gets the No. 1 spot will have the same odds at a top-four pick as the No. 2 team, but won’t be able to fall further than fifth overall in the draft. The coin flip loser could fall as far as sixth if several teams leapfrog them into the top four.
Most other guaranteed lottery teams are locked into their respective positions, but the Trail Blazers (35-46) and Suns (36-45) at No. 9 and No. 10 could still end up swapping spots if Portland wins and Phoenix loses on Sunday. In that scenario, a coin flip would decide which team is ninth in the lottery order.
Award races
It may seem safe to assume that no awards will be decided based on what happens on the final day of the season, but you never know.
For instance, if the Nuggets lose on Sunday and end up falling all the way to No. 7 in the Western Conference standings, we can probably just hand the MVP trophy to Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. On the other hand, if Nikola Jokic helps Denver clinch the No. 4 seed with a 50-point triple-double, maybe that will sway some voters who are on the fence.
There are no serious candidates for end-of-season awards who absolutely need to play at least 20 minutes on Sunday in order to meet the NBA’s 65-game criteria. Technically, Raptors forward Scottie Barnes has one game to go to reach 65, but he’s pretty unlikely to warrant any real consideration for awards like All-NBA and All-Defense.
Teams with open roster spots
As we outlined on Thursday, there are still a handful of teams with open spots on their standard 15-man rosters. Those teams are now as follows:
- Boston Celtics
- Golden State Warriors
- Toronto Raptors (2)
The Mavericks (Brandon Williams) and Pelicans (Elfrid Payton) have signed players since Thursday to fill spots on their 15-man rosters, and reports have indicated that the Celtics (JD Davison) and Raptors (A.J. Lawson and Colin Castleton) have lined up deals for their openings too. So the Warriors are really the only team we’re waiting on here.
It’s not unprecedented for a team to leave a roster spot open at the end of the season, but it’s pretty rare — all 30 teams finished the season with full 15-man squads in each of the past three years.
That makes the Warriors a good bet to make a roster move before their final game tips off on Sunday, even if it’s as simple as promoting a two-way player to a standard contract to make him postseason-eligible.
