It makes no sense for Giannis Antetokounmpo to remain a member of the Milwaukee Bucks, unless he wants to spend the remainder of his prime languishing away on a mediocre team in need of a rebuild.
Which is why Monday’s report came as no surprise to anyone paying attention: “Antetokounmpo is open-minded about exploring whether his best long-term fit is remaining in Milwaukee or playing elsewhere,” although he “has not made any firm decisions on his Bucks future,” according to ESPN’s Shams Charania.
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The Bucks do not control their own first-round draft pick until 2031. They have 35% of a maxed-out salary cap committed to a 34-year-old Damian Lillard, who tore his left Achilles tendon in the playoffs. The back end of their rotation is full of free agents. The front end is barren beneath Antetokounmpo.
This is a team going nowhere. The Bucks have lost in the first round of the playoffs in three consecutive seasons. They have no financial flexibility or draft equity to improve around Antetokounmpo, so it makes sense for them, too, to trade their homegrown superstar. So what can they get for a two-time NBA MVP?
This will not be the Luka Dončić deal, where the Los Angeles Lakers paid cents on the dollar to the Dallas Mavericks for a perennial All-NBA member. That was arguably the dumbest trade in NBA history. Instead the Bucks will seek a package of young talent and draft capital that eclipses anything we have ever seen.
What might that look like?
It would be in Giannis Antetokounmpo’s best interest to move on from the Bucks. (Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images)
(Stacy Revere via Getty Images)
Houston Rockets
If I were the Bucks, the first player I would target in an Antetokounmpo deal is Amen Thompson. The 22-year-old forward might be the best young player who could become available in a deal of this magnitude.
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Thompson will, in all likelihood, make the All-Defensive roster in his sophomore season. He averaged 16 points (on 56/27/68 shooting splits), 9.2 rebounds, 4.9 assists and 3.3 combined blocks and steals in 42 games as a starter this past season, and if he ever develops a jump shot he will be an absolute superstar.
That is the type of player Milwaukee should demand in return for Antetokounmpo. It is also the type of player Houston should not want to part with. The Rockets could also offer some combination of Alperen Şengün, Jalen Green, Tari Eason or Jabari Smith Jr., plus a boatload of picks — including No. 10 in next month’s draft — for Antetokounmpo, though none of them holds the potential to become the face of a winning franchise quite like Thompson does.
And that might be the sticking point. Just how much can the Bucks pry from the young Rockets, knowing Houston is desperate to take the next step toward contention. The second-seeded Rockets lost a seven-game, first-round series to the Golden State Warriors. Maybe the Rockets can convince themselves that internal development is enough to take that next step, or maybe they are an Antetokounmpo away from a title.
Antetokounmpo’s defensive versatility would be an ideal fit for Houston’s system, which ranked top-five on that end during the regular season. His shooting, though, could only exacerbate problems offensively for the Rockets, whose effective field-goal and true-shooting percentages ranked among the bottom 10.
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Would the Rockets then have to make additional moves, trading more young pieces to supplement the shooting around Antetokounmpo? That might be part of the plan anyhow. Worry about the rest later. The problem is getting one of the league’s elite players in the door, and Houston has the assets to do it.
Oklahoma City Thunder
The Thunder also have the assets to do it. For them it is a matter of whether they want to get involved.
Oklahoma City won 68 games during the regular season. Its net rating was second all-time to Michael Jordan’s 72-win Chicago Bulls. The Thunder are the favorites to win the NBA title at BetMGM, despite getting all they can handle against Nikola Jokić’s Denver Nuggets in the second round of the playoffs. Should they survive that series and fulfill their goal of winning a championship, it is hard to imagine them selling off the farm for Antetokounmpo.
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But if they lose on the road to a ring, they absolutely should consider a pursuit of Antetokounmpo. Can you imagine what hell he and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander — two of the league’s top three MVP candidates — could unleash on the league? The Thunder could surround them with defense and shooting, even after giving up the assets to acquire Antetokounmpo. After all, they control the most draft picks of any team.
It would probably also cost the Thunder Chet Holmgren and the salaries to match, unless the Bucks would prefer Jalen Williams. In the event of an early playoff exit, Oklahoma City would have to consider dealing either or anyone not named Gilgeous-Alexander, even if only to drive up the price for Houston.
Dallas Mavericks or San Antonio Spurs
The Mavericks stunned the NBA for the second time this season. First, it was trading Dončić. Then they moved all the way up in the lottery to land the No. 1 pick and the right to take Cooper Flagg.
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It would be incredibly hilarious if, after the Dončić trade, Mavericks general manager Nico Harrison traded away the No. 1 pick in pursuit of a win-now move.
I am not even sure the Mavericks would be that dumb.
The Spurs already have a superstar, Victor Wembanyama, and now own both the Nos. 2 and 14 selections in the June draft, after nearly winning the lottery for the second time in three seasons. If the Spurs opt to accelerate their rebuild around Wembanyama, those picks could provide the foundation for a strong trade package and possibly put them in the pole position for Antetokounmpo, especially if the Bucks believe either Dylan Harper or Ace Bailey is going to be a star.
Brooklyn Nets
Following the Dončić deal, Antetokounmpo told reporters, somewhat in jest, “I want all the Europeans to go to all the big markets to see something incredible. This is what I want. This is my dream.” I do not think it would be some major revelation if we were to find out Antetokounmpo wants to play in a big market.
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People will float the New York Knicks as possibilities, but they spent all their draft capital on trades for Karl-Anthony Towns and Mikal Bridges. Nor do the Knicks have a budding young superstar on the roster.
The Nets do not have much in the way of young talent, either, but they do have a cache of draft assets, including the No. 8 pick in this year’s draft.
They also have the financial flexibility to pursue a second star alongside Antetokounmpo. As it is, they are in no better position than the Bucks to give Antetokounmpo what he wants: another shot at a title. Could Brooklyn really patch together a contender in the two years Antetokounmpo is under contract?
Miami Heat
The same could be said of the Heat. They have picks, plus Tyler Herro and/or Bam Adebayo, to package for Antetokounmpo, and then what? They do not have other assets to seriously compete now. Instead they would be relying on Pat Riley’s ability to rapidly construct a contender around Antetokounmpo.
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And maybe that is not so bad a bet. Riley has done it around LeBron James and Jimmy Butler before.
It is Miami, after all. But the location is about all the Heat have going for it right now. Likewise for the Los Angeles teams, neither of which has either the young talent or the draft compensation to make a sensible trade.
