The OKC Thunder is waiting to see which team it’ll face in the 2025 NBA Finals.
OKC will face either the Indiana Pacers or the New York Knicks. Indiana holds a 3-2 lead in that best-of-seven series entering Game 6 at 7 p.m. CT Saturday in Indianapolis (TNT).
Which matchup is more favorable for the Thunder? Here are the pros and cons of facing each team:
Pro: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will be a handful for Indiana’s defense
OKC won both of its regular-season games against Indiana, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander dominated.
The league’s Most Valuable Player averaged 39 points, eight assists and seven rebounds in those two meetings on 55.6% shooting from the field and 63.6% shooting from deep. The only team he averaged more points against this season was Detroit (40.5).
Indiana would throw players such as Andrew Nembhard and Aaron Nesmith at Gilgeous-Alexander in this series. And while they’re both good defenders, they’ll have their hands full in that matchup.
Even with the strong play of Tyrese Haliburton, Gilgeous-Alexander should be the best player in this series by a considerable margin.
Con: It’s tough to disrupt Indiana’s offense
OKC boasts the best defense in the NBA, and it’s fueled by forcing turnovers.
The Thunder has forced an average of 18 turnovers per game this postseason, which ranks first among the 16 teams. It has converted those miscues into an average of 23.8 points per game, which also ranks first.
But Indiana’s offense is as sound as it gets with Haliburton, an elite decision maker, leading the way. The Pacers rank fifth this postseason in fewest turnovers per game (12.7) and first in fewest points allowed off turnovers per game (12.5).
OKC will apply plenty of pressure in an effort to disrupt Indiana’s offense. But if it’s unable to do that consistently, it’ll have to generate momentum in other ways.
Pro: OKC can capitalize on Indiana’s shaky rim protection
OKC’s offense is centered around getting to the rim. The Thunder ranks second this postseason in both drives per game (51.6) and points in the paint per game (50.6).
Gilgeous-Alexander is as good as it gets at working his way into the lane. And if the elite finisher doesn’t keep it, he can dish the ball off to two 7-footers in Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein.
That could present some problems for Indiana, which isn’t great at protecting the rim. The Pacers rank ninth this postseason in opponent field goal percentage from inside five feet (64.1%) and 11th in opponent points in the paint per game (47.7).
Outside of Myles Turner, one of the league’s better shot blockers, Indiana doesn’t have a ton of defenders who can keep opponents out of the paint. OKC would surely take advantage of that.
Con: OKC could struggle heavily in the 3-point battle
OKC is arguably the most complete team in the NBA. But its biggest weakness as of late has been its poor 3-point shooting.
The Thunder ranks 13th this postseason in 3-point percentage (33.6%). Holmgren is shooting 33.3% from deep, and that’s the highest percentage of OKC’s starters.
Meanwhile, Indiana can’t miss from distance. It ranks first this postseason in 3-point percentage (39.3%).
Indiana’s high-octane offense is already tough enough to keep up with. But if OKC can’t knock down its shots from deep, it’ll be even more difficult.
Pro: OKC has a significant advantage in the depth department
OKC’s bench has been a game changer throughout this postseason.
Alex Caruso is a championship veteran who plays elite defense, and he’s shooting 41.5% from deep. Cason Wallace is also a disruptive defender, and he’s hard to stop in transition.
But OKC boasts other bench players such as Aaron Wiggins, Isaiah Joe, Kenrich Williams and Jaylin Williams as well. All of them are capable of producing in the handful of minutes they receive.
New York, on the other hand, isn’t nearly as deep. All of its usual starters play at least 35 minutes per game, and the Knicks’ only reliable guys off the bench are Miles McBride and Mitchell Robinson.
Con: New York is better equipped to defend Gilgeous-Alexander than Indiana
Gilgeous-Alexander is arguably the league’s most unstoppable scorer, and the 6-6 guard is a nightmare to defend thanks in part to his size.
But OG Anunoby is a 6-7 forward who can hold his own against Gilgeous-Alexander. And while his defense hasn’t been as consistent as usual this season, Mikal Bridges is a 6-6 forward who can also help with that assignment.
The Knicks even have Josh Hart as an option. The 6-4 guard lives up to his last name by punching above his weight class, giving New York three strong options to defend Gilgeous-Alexander.
And while New York’s lack of rim protection was a problem during its regular-season meetings against OKC, the return of Robinson has been huge. His shot blocking skills would only make it more difficult for Gilgeous-Alexander to find a rhythm in this series.
Pro: OKC’s defense can key in on Jalen Brunson
It might seem odd to list defending Jalen Brunson as a pro. But my reasoning is that it’s easier to plan for a team that relies heavily on one scorer rather than a team with multiple options.
Brunson is averaging 30.1 points per game these playoffs, and most of New York’s offense consists of letting the star guard create for himself. That’s mostly why the Knicks rank last this postseason in assist percentage (50%).
OKC’s defense has been able to make life difficult for the other team’s top player. Memphis’ Jaren Jackson Jr. averaged 16 points on 37.9% shooting from the field in the first round. Nikola Jokic looked mortal at times in the second round, averaging 28.4 points on 47.9% shooting. And Anthony Edwards averaged 23 points in the conference finals on 47.1% shooting.
OKC would apply constant pressure on Brunson with defenders such as Lu Dort, Caruso and Wallace. And if it can slow him down, New York will struggle to keep up on the scoreboard.
Con: New York can make OKC pay on the offensive glass
OKC has lost four games so far this postseason. It allowed an average of 12 offensive rebounds and 19.8 second-chance points in those contests.
Meanwhile, hustling on the offensive glass is a strength of New York. It ranks sixth this postseason in offensive rebounds per game (11.7) and second in second-chance points per game (17.1)
Robinson is averaging 3.6 offensive rebounds, as you might expect from the 7-foot center. But it’s a group effort for the Knicks, with Hart also averaging 2.5 offensive boards as a guard.
It isn’t easy to score against OKC’s defense. But if New York can battle for second chances, that’ll help it stay in this series.
